Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 15: Picks for Pebbles, Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, California Distaff

You could call it the calm before the Breeders’ Cup storm, but Saturday’s stakes schedule is the lightest by Saturday standards in months. There are just two graded events, the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland and the Grade 3, $200,000 Futurity at Belmont, which drew a field of only five.

Pebbles Stakes

This is the other stakes on Belmont’s card, and since it’s in New York on turf, it has to be all Chad Brown, right? Right.

Brown, who won two of the three grass stakes at Belmont last Saturday as well as the Grade 1 Champagne on dirt, has Ancient Secret and She Doesn’t Mind in here. Ancient Secret was soundly beaten as the favorite in the Ontario Colleen most recently but will be reunited Saturday with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., for whom she won her first four starts, including the Lake George two starts back. She’s a win threat for sure, but I prefer She Doesn’t Mind.

She Doesn’t Mind was unlucky in her last two starts, and not just because she was facing On Leave, who won the Sands Point with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure and is a contender in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. She Doesn’t Mind finished second to On Leave in the Riskaverse last time out after acting up in the starting gate and steadying in upper stretch.

Two starts back, She Doesn’t Mind finished third in a Belmont allowance race behind On Leave and Stella Rose (who is also in this race), and she was unlucky not to have won. For one, She Doesn’t Mind was closer to a fast early pace than On Leave and Stella Rose were.

More importantly, She Doesn’t Mind was blocked by horses in upper stretch. She steadied and angled out at a total loss of momentum while On Leave and Stella Rose got the jump on her with unobstructed outside runs. She Doesn’t Mind still managed to gain some ground late, much to her credit. I like She Doesn’t Mind’s outside draw Saturday, and I’m hoping she finally gets a trouble-free trip.

I’m also interested in Insta Erma, who confirmed how improved she is with a fine score in her recent return from a five-month layoff. Insta Erma dueled three wide on the far turn through the fastest fraction of that race and determinedly prevailed in a final time that’s quick enough to suggest she can compete at this level.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

I don’t have any wise-guy ideas here other than sensing that the Catch a Glimpse-Time and Motion rivalry is mirroring the Beholder-Stellar Wind rivalry. To explain, Stellar Wind ran a better race than Beholder to beat her on the square in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar, yet Beholder was still heavily bet over Stellar Wind in the subsequent Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita, where Stellar Wind beat her again.

Catch a Glimpse was odds-on over Time and Motion last time in the Lake Placid at Saratoga. Catch a Glimpse ran very well, as she always does. But Time and Motion simply ran better. Despite Catch a Glimpse having a huge tactical advantage by setting an easy pace and forcing Time and Motion to be put into a drive early just to remain in contact, Time and Motion still collared Catch a Glimpse in time.

My takeaway from the Lake Placid was similar to my thoughts about Stellar Wind after the Hirsch: I think Time and Motion now is a little better than Catch a Glimpse. I know Catch a Glimpse will control the pace again Saturday, but she’ll be bet because of that, too. I’m going with Time and Motion.

California Distaff Handicap

The Warrior hates to include a race with a five-horse field, but this is one of those weeks when there is nowhere else to go. Besides, Enola Gray, who might be the best horse, will be a short price despite never having raced on turf, and that’s not my kind of horse.

Long Hot Summer is the obvious alternative as she has a fine record on the downhill course, and her Del Mar efforts show how sharp she is.