Weekend Warrior for Saturday, November 16, 2013: Winning Cause preferred over Canadian shippers

[bc_video_id:310191:]Despite a midweek cold snap and actual sightings of snow, Saturday’s weather forecast is okay. That’s important, because all three of Saturday’s graded stakes are scheduled for the turf. They are the Grade 2, $175,000 Mrs. Revere and Grade 3, $100,000 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill Downs, and the Grade 3, $250,000 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct.

Commonwealth Turf

The Canadian turf 3-year-olds seem to be a good bunch this year, with three examples I can think of right off the top of my head: Five Iron came down to the States to win the Saranac at Saratoga, Up With the Birds shipped to win the Grade 1 Jamaica at Belmont, and Overheard came down and won the Valley View at Keeneland. And there are three Canadian shippers in this spot who merit a look – Golden Sabre, River Seven, and Kaigun.

Kaigun seems the weakest of the three, although he is not without a chance. But given how the two who finished closest to him in his entry-level allowance win most recently performed in their subsequent starts, I wonder about the validity of the 88 Beyer Figure he earned.

Speaking of Beyers, River Seven earned a field-best 105 in his runaway win in the Labeeb last time out. That occurred over a yielding course, however. I am always skeptical of big-fig wins on off surfaces, and before that, River Seven seemed the sort who preferred finishing second to winning.

I believe Golden Sabre is the most dangerous of the three Canadian shippers, and is a prime win candidate. Golden Sabre finished first in his last three starts (he was disqualified in the Charlie Barley two starts back), which were also his first three starts on turf, and with only four starts behind him, he still has plenty of room for improvement. And his victory over River Seven in his last outing was more decisive than the neck margin would suggest.

That said, I’m going with Winning Cause. Winning Cause was a very game second in the Fayette last time out after making a four- to five-wide run around the far turn, and while that was over a Keeneland Polytrack he loves, it was also against eight older opponents. Winning Cause now moves back in with straight 3-year-olds, a hidden but often significant class drop. Moreover, Winning Cause ran well enough on turf at Saratoga, winning a restricted stakes in one of his starts there, to handle the surface switch.

Red Smith Handicap

Hyper improved dramatically during the year and now is a legitimate graded stakes performer. He was a narrowly beaten second in the Grade 1 Canadian International last time. European shippers finished first, third, and fourth in that race, and their dominant showing in the Breeders’ Cup showed how formidable they can be. Hyper is strictly the one to beat, but he has also has had a long campaign and won’t be much of a price.

I like the filly Tannery. Facing males is not new to Tannery, as she was a good fourth three starts back in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer after racing wide every step of the way. She followed with a sharp second despite being compromised by a crawling pace to stablemate Laughing in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl, and she won the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor most recently, beating three European shippers.

Mrs. Revere Stakes

I thought I’m Already Sexy ran well despite finishing sixth in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup most recently because she was beaten only three lengths after forcing a very fast pace. And while QE II winner Kitten’s Dumplings came back to run poorly in the Breeders’ Cup, the form of this race got a boost when QE II runner-up Alterite came back to be a fine third in the Filly & Mare Turf. The tricky part for I’m Already Sexy Saturday is there is other speed to deal with. But I’m still picking her because she has relaxed early in the past, and her strong turf wins at Arlington two and three starts back say she’s good enough to win a race like this.

Emotional Kitten is logical dropping out of three straight Grade 1 starts. Although she didn’t cash in on it in the QE II, a strong pace would assist her late run, and she gets a positive rider switch.