Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 7: Picks for Chilukki, Long Island, Kathryn Crosby
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
After the whirlwind of the Breeders’ Cup last week, it is no surprise that pickings are slim on Saturday’s stakes schedule. There are only two graded events – the Grade 2, $200,000 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs and the Grade 3, $200,000 Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct.
Chilukki Stakes
This is an interesting race with three comebackers of varying class, two of whom are likely to attract considerable action – Gold Medal Dancer and Birdatthewire.
Gold Medal Dancer upset last year’s champion 3-year-old filly, Untapable, when she won the Azeri Stakes last March and followed with thirds in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and in the Grade 1 La Troienne over the Churchill main track on the Kentucky Oaks card. Birdatthewire won the Gulfstream Park Oaks last March and followed with a rallying fifth in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing just a half-length behind fourth-place Stellar Wind, who became a leading contender for this year’s champion 3-year-old filly award after her near miss in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last week.
The other comebacker is Shanon Nicole. She might not have the graded stakes success the other two have, but she was an impressive winner of the Remington Park Oaks last fall and has some of the best Beyer Speed Figures in this field.
Although I wouldn’t fall off my chair if any of these three won, I’m playing against them. All three have run well fresh in the past, but Gold Medal Dancer and Shanon Nicole have done their best work in two-turn races as opposed to a one-turn event like this. I wonder if they aren’t simply prepping for Churchill’s Falls City Handicap, a route on Thanksgiving Day.
Birdatthewire might be prepping too, but she is at least a graded stakes winner at one turn. However, I’m still uncertain how good she really is. When Birdatthewire won the Gulfstream Oaks, she did so riding the crest of a profound track bias in favor of outside runners.
I like Spelling Again, who has improved dramatically since the Brad Cox claim and boasts sharp recent form. Spelling Again won at this one-mile distance three starts back, albeit around two turns, in her second start for her present connections, earning a Beyer that makes her competitive with the best here. She followed with a game score in the Open Mind over the Churchill track, coming again after appearing beaten in midstretch to win going away.
And her fourth most recently in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland was a fine effort, too. Spelling Again was squeezed back in the initial strides of the TCA, putting her farther off the early pace than she is accustomed to. But she showed how good she is by finishing a gaining fourth and galloping out in front past the wire.
Spelling Again should have no trouble Saturday stretching back out again in distance. But most importantly, she is the controlling speed.
Long Island Handicap
Danza Cavallo finished second most recently in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl to Stephanie’s Kitten, who came back to win last week’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Goldy Espony won two stakes over the summer at the 12-furlong distance that she must travel in this race. Rosalind finished third in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes last time.
What all three of these fillies have in common, aside from being trained by Chad Brown, is that all of the performances noted were achieved with the benefit of setting slow early paces. And the reason why I prefer Rosalind in the Long Island is that I believe this time she will be more effective sitting back off the pace.
The E.P. Taylor was Rosalind’s best performance since she won the Sheepshead Bay last May. Notably, it was also her first start in an extended turf race since the Sheepshead Bay, which she won with a stalking approach that is an ideal fit for her here.
Kathryn Crosby Stakes
Beat of The Drum might not have the U.S. stakes experience that Three Hearts and Nashoba’s Gold have in this Del Mar headliner. But those two are coming off layoffs, while Beat of The Drum comes into this off a dominating allowance score last month at Santa Anita and is the play.
Beat of The Drum might get a trip similar to the pace trip she got in her big recent win. Moreover, relative to others here, she still has some upside.