Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 26: Picks for Demoiselle, Remsen, Cigar Mile

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Although there are plenty of stakes around the country Saturday, the Weekend Warrior finds himself in a Big A state of mind, finding attractive value plays in a trio of stakes at Aqueduct. So, let’s get to it, tackling them in order, with the Demoiselle in race 6, the Remsen in race 8, and the Cigar Mile in the 10th and final race.

Demoiselle

Coming off a troubled fifth in a roughly contested Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Jamyson ‘n Ginger is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. But Rodriguez is firing a couple of other shots in the Demoiselle, and I prefer one of those: Libby’s Tail, the 7-2 third choice on the line.

She has twice posted fast-track Beyer Speed Figures of 77 – numbers that match up well against the competition – and I was particularly encouraged by her last race, where she was second to Yellow Agate in the Grade 1 Frizette. The pacesetter for much of the race, Libby’s Tail proved a stubborn foe for Yellow Agate to pass and lost by just a head.

With Yellow Agate subsequently running 10th in the Juvenile Fillies, I suspect the betting public won’t give Libby’s Tail’s loss to her the respect it deserves. But that would be a mistake. Yellow Agate had a brutal trip in the Juvenile Fillies and never really had much chance to run to her potential.

This is not to suggest that Libby’s Tail is a standout in the Demoiselle. She’s not. She’s just the expected value.

Jamyson ‘n Ginger figures to be overbet off her trip in the Breeders’ Cup, where she got checked and shuffled back, and Miss Sky Warrior will also draw her share of support off a victory in the Tempted as the favorite.

Remsen

A couple of races later in the Remsen, my angle is to support experience over promise by taking No Dozing, who won his first two starts before a fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders ‘ Futurity at Keeneland behind Classic Empire, the eventual winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Takaful is 7-5 on the line off a blowout maiden victory, and others in the race who have had only a start or two are likely to take action. And no matter their promise, I’d rather bet against these types, who are prone to regression, against seasoned opposition.

No Dozing has a lot going for him. He rallied to win his first two starts, both sprints, and he made a promising middle move in the Breeders’ Futurity to advance from seventh to third, only to weaken a bit late. His fade was not so much an inability to stay but the result of having to play catch-up.

That experience should move him forward, and if Takaful drops off the 92 Beyer he posted in winning first out, the 81 Beyer No Dozing just posted fits with the rest of the opposition.

No Dozing is 4-1 on the line but looks like the type who could drift higher than that, particularly if Mo Town and Hookup are well backed off their fast maiden victories.

Cigar Mile

Anchor Down is the most likely winner of the Cigar Mile, being a skilled one-turn performer and having just beaten eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Tamarkuz in the Kelso on Oct. 8 in a swiftly run race.

But I won’t be betting him. He enjoyed a soft trip setting an easy pace in the Kelso when facing only token early pressure, and on principle I don’t back perfect-trip winners who are favored in their next start.

Instead, I will take a chance with 6-1 outsider Threefiveindian, who has developed rapidly over the second half of the year. In addition to winning a pair of allowances in the summer, he was third in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob at Parx behind Noholdingback Bear and Mind Your Biscuits and second in the Bold Ruler to Stallwalkin’ Dude.

He earned good numbers in those races while keeping company with some of the better sprinters around. And I see no reason why he should not be able to handle a one-turn mile after having performed well in long sprints.

Anchor Down certainly will be tough to catch, particularly if he is loose on the lead – which is a possibility in a race not loaded with speed – but there is enough value with Threefiveindia to warrant taking a chance on this blossoming 3-year-old.