Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 21: Picks for Delta Jackpot, Cardinal, My Charmer
Delta Downs takes center stage Saturday with the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot and the $400,000 Delta Downs Princess, a pair of Grade 3 stakes. There are four other Grade 3 races Saturday, each worth $100,000: The My Charmer and Tropical Turf handicaps at Gulfstream Park West, the Red Carpet at Del Mar, and the Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs.
Delta Downs Jackpot
Exaggerator was beaten only three lengths when fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile most recently, was beaten just a length when second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity two starts back, and won the Saratoga Special three back. In other words, he might be so much better than the nine he faces Saturday that he might win by merely throwing his past performances on the track. And yet I’m taking a stand against him.
I fully realize that getting 1 1/16 miles around two turns against the level of company Exaggerator faced in the Breeders’ Cup and Breeders’ Futurity is wildly different than attempting the same thing against the horses he faces in this spot. That said, I wonder if middle-distance routes are Exaggerator’s forte. He had a clear lead in the stretch of the Breeders’ Futurity, and Brody’s Cause ran by him late like he was tied to the sixteenth pole. And Exaggerator pulled a perfect trip in the Breeders’ Cup and didn’t exactly finish with gusto.
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Moreover, with perhaps a couple of exceptions, I was as underwhelmed with the group out of the Juvenile as everyone. I’m willing to play against the Juvenile form until I see enough reason to reassess.
Sunny Ridge and Forevamo might be the most popular alternatives to Exaggerator, but I’m ambivalent about both. Greenpointcrusader freaked over a sloppy track when Sunny Ridge finished second to him in the Champagne Stakes, but Sunny Ridge was soundly beaten, and I have my doubts about the horses who finished behind him. As for Forevamo, I liked him when he won the Jean Lafitte, the local prep for this, but was disappointed that he had to work as hard as he did on a sloppy track that he should have adored.
Whitmore is the one I want Saturday against Exaggerator. Whitmore comes into this race off an upset maiden-sprint victory at Churchill Downs in his debut, but it was an impressive effort. Whitmore’s rider was looking around for competition before turning for home and even before he took the lead. Sure enough, despite racing greenly in the stretch, Whitmore ran away to score by more than seven lengths in decent time. Whitmore seems like the type who will only improve with racing, and he’s bred to love the added distance he gets this time.
Cardinal Handicap
I have questions and doubts about several horses here. Emotional Kitten will be bet, but she hasn’t actually won a race in 13 months. Button Down was beaten just two lengths when fifth in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor last time, but given the dud third-place finisher Rosalind produced in her next start, I’m not sure I trust the form of that race. I don’t think Kiss Moon really wants all of the nine furlongs she must go Saturday, and I’m not yet buying Wiener Valkyrie’s perfect-trip second at 66-1 in the Athenia Stakes in her U.S. debut.
This is a good spot to take a shot, and I’m going with Invading Humor to post a second straight stakes upset. This is a tougher group than the New York-breds whom Invading Humor wired at 29-1 in the Ticonderoga most recently. However, she might be left alone on the lead again, and it speaks well to her current condition that she’s able to put two starts close together.
My Charmer Handicap
I know she won’t be any price, and with all due respect to the returning Sandiva, who is tough at this level on her best, but Lady Lara is a standout here.
Lady Lara finished third in the Athenia last time. She was crippled with an impossible post and chose to spot her 12 opponents a major head start instead of getting caught 10 wide. In addition, she had traffic at several points, especially in the stretch, but still finished full of run.