Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 17: Picks for the River City, Bob Hope, Red Smith

Three Grade 3 stakes events highlight Saturday’s national stakes action – the $200,000 Red Smith at Aqueduct, the $100,000 River City Handicap at Churchill Downs, and the $100,000 Bob Hope at Del Mar.

River City Handicap

Mr. Misunderstood deserves top billing here as he takes a substantial class drop out of the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, in which he at least made a mild bid before winding up sixth. Moreover, he won stakes in two of his prior three starts, including the Grade 2 Wise Dan over the Churchill turf course, on which he is 3 for 3 in his career. Still, none of that means Mr. Misunderstood absolutely has to win this race. After all, while he is 1 for 3 in his career at Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile distance, that win (in last year’s Jefferson Cup, also over the Churchill turf course) was at the expense of a softer group, and I wonder about him going this far.

There’s an eclectic group lined up against Mr. Misunderstood, including Oscar Nominated, Postulation, and Master Merion.

Oscar Nominated and Postulation (who is cross-entered in the Red Smith) are certainly competitive off their best performances. But both are at home in much longer events, and they might well lack the turn of foot needed to be successful at this shorter distance. In fact, neither has yet won going as short as nine furlongs.

As for Master Merion, a duplicate of his first outing this year – a near miss in a stakes-class allowance race last spring at Keeneland – would be good enough to win. The trouble is, he has not run as well in four subsequent starts, and the recent loss of his early speed also is a concern.

I fear Sir Dudley Digges, who most recently returned to the turf (by far his favorite surface) and responded with an improved third to Arklow in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at Ellis Park. Notably, Arklow came back to win the Kentucky Turf Cup, finish second in the Sycamore, and fourth, albeit a distant one, in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Sir Dudley Digges should run well, but I’m going with Big Changes.

Even if he has won three stakes this year, Big Changes doesn’t have the class lines of some others here. But he does come into this in career form and on a five-race win streak, the most recent a very good victory in a solid overnight race at Keeneland. And perhaps most importantly, Big Changes has a tactical edge on this field. There isn’t much pace, and I envision him being the controlling speed.

Bob Hope Stakes

Trainer Bob Baffert has two of the seven entered in this 2-year-old event – Mucho Gusto and Metropol, though Metropol is expected to scratch with a fever. Mucho Gusto scored in his first and only start as the heavy favorite, so it’s probably foolish going against him.

That said, while the runner-up in Mucho Gusto’s debut win did come back to win his next start, he did so on Santa Anita’s downhill course, and with only minimal speed-figure improvement.

I like Extra Hope, who dramatically turned his career around last time out with the addition of blinkers. Extra Hope crushed a group of maidens by almost nine lengths going two turns at Santa Anita after being more involved in the early pace than he had been in his previous three starts. The cutback from 1 1/16 miles to seven furlongs Saturday is a strong lure in Extra Hope’s case, as is the fact that he should get strong early fractions to target.

Red Smith Stakes

There is yet more inclement weather, with some heavy rain, forecast for New York into mid-day Friday. In other words, with uncertainty concerning the course condition (if this even remains on the turf) and the resulting uncertainty over the composition of the field, I would normally avoid a race like this. But Saturday’s stakes options are limited, so . . .

Zulu Alpha is the one I want. Zulu Alpha was strong winning the recent Sycamore Stakes in his first start for his new connections. He handles off turf, and he should be prominent from the outset.