Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 14: Picks for De Francis Dash, Mrs. Revere, Red Smith
Saturday’s graded stakes action takes place at Churchill Downs, with the Grade 2, $200,000 Mrs. Revere; at Aqueduct, with the Grade 3, $250,000 Red Smith Handicap; and at Del Mar, with the Grade 3, $100,000 Bob Hope Stakes. Laurel has an attractive, stakes-packed card topped by the $350,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash.
De Francis Dash
Palace still has a big reputation and is the name horse here even if he has had a disappointing 2015 campaign. Palace was beaten less than a length when fourth in the Grade 1 Vosburgh two starts back, and he did deliver as the odds-on favorite over New York-breds in the Hudson Handicap most recently. In fairness, Palace’s season was compromised by two different foot issues, one early in the year and the other sustained in his third-place finish in the John Morrissey Stakes three starts back.
But even after taking all of that into consideration, Palace still seems below the two-time Grade 1 stakes-winning form he displayed last year. His win in the Hudson was really only okay, and I find it curious, and not in a good way, that Palace was entered to race Saturday with blinkers on. That’s usually a big move for trainer Linda Rice. But putting blinkers on a horse like Palace, who has made 27 career starts without them, and off a win suggests that his connections are looking for ways to get him to perform better. Palace might win, but he’ll win without me.
:: Laurel Park: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
Stallwalkin’ Dude, eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last time, finished narrowly in front of Palace when third in the Vosburgh two back and is the more dangerous of the two. Stallwalkin’ Dude had a tougher four-wide trip in the Vosburgh than Palace did.
Yet as much as I respect Stallwalkin’ Dude in this spot, I’m going with Gentlemen’s Bet. Gentlemen’s Bet, who was unable to break into the starting field for the BC Sprint, looked to be on his way to a big year after a strong score in the Hot Springs Stakes last March, only to perform miserably in his next three starts. But Gentlemen’s Bet returned from a four-month layoff last month in the Phoenix Stakes and turned in a fine effort that now has him primed for a big move forward.
Much was made after the Phoenix about how Runhappy won despite breaking poorly (and, of course, Runhappy came back to win the BC Sprint and is a lock to be voted champion male sprinter), but Gentlemen’s Bet didn’t break well either. Still, Gentlemen’s Bet worked his way into contention nearing the stretch before understandably weakening. Gentlemen’s Bet should only benefit from that outing, and note how significantly he improved in the Hot Springs, his second start off a long absence.
Mrs. Revere Stakes
Onus comes into this off three runaway scores at Laurel, earning relatively big Beyer Speed Figures in her last two, and maybe she’ll make a show of this field, too. But Onus is facing a much stronger group Saturday, and I’m opting for Devine Aida.
Devine Aida finished second in last month’s Pebbles Stakes to Partisan Politics, who is also in this race. But there are reasons to think that Devine Aida can improve enough off that outing to turn the tables.
Devine Aida was making her first start in five months in the Pebbles, so she has a license to move forward. And Devine Aida had an “in-between” trip, doing enough through fast fractions to keep the front runner honest while Partisan Politics pulled a perfect stalking trip. This time, there are others to keep the pace honest, and Devine Aida can draw a more relaxed stalking trip, facilitated with blinkers off.
Red Smith Handicap
Mr Speaker and Kaigun might be the two best horses in this race, but I have doubts that either really wants to go 11 furlongs. There is nothing wrong with Holiday Star, but I just prefer the new face, Mr Maybe.
Mr Maybe comes off the two best performances of his career, most recently an overwhelming victory at this distance in his first start for trainer Chad Brown. Mr Maybe is moving up, but his recent Beyers say he can handle the class jump.