Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Nov. 12: Picks for Commonwealth Turf, Discovery, Red Smith

Yes, one week does make a lot of difference. Last Saturday was the second and biggest day of the Breeders’ Cup. This Saturday’s stakes schedule is topped by three Grade 3 events – the $200,000 Red Smith Handicap and $150,000 Discovery at Aqueduct, and the $100,000 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill Downs.

Commonwealth Turf Stakes

Sir Dudley Digges merits top billing in this race. He won the Queen’s Plate last July, and though that race was on Woodbine’s synthetic main track and this race is on turf, he was also second most recently in the Breeders’ Stakes on turf, the third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. Sir Dudley Digges’s effort in the Breeders’ was a fine one, as he finished in front of three next-out winners who improved their Beyer Figures, and the cut-back in distance Saturday from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/16 miles suits him. But if Sir Dudley Digges has a weakness, it might be that he’s coming off a 2 1/2-month break. Limited evidence suggests he might be most effective second time back.

Surgical Strike and One Mean Man are also logical contenders. Both have won stakes on grass this season, and even though both are near the end of relatively active campaigns, they are in good form. But neither is particularly fast from a Beyer standpoint.

I like Bondurant, a lightly raced colt who despite making his stakes debut Saturday already has the Beyers to win this. Yet, his best performances figure to still be in front of him.

Bondurant showed potential winning two of three starts last year. He beat a couple of stakes-class horses in Tusk and Path of David in his maiden win in his second start, leaving Sir Dudley Digges back in fifth, and followed by winning a stretch duel from Oscar Nominated, who has since won three stakes.

Bondurant reappeared in September at Kentucky Downs, coming off a layoff of more than nine months and going a sprint distance shorter than what he prefers. He would have done better than finish a close fifth were it not for all kinds of trouble in upper stretch. Last time out, at a more comfortable middle distance, Bondurant had to go four wide on the far turn against a salty allowance field at Keeneland. But that ground loss didn’t stop him from winning going away in a performance as good as anything anyone else in this race has ever produced.

Discovery Stakes

Gift Box will be a handful in this spot. I actually gave him a shot in the Travers most recently when he was fourth against Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, and he was a game second to subsequent Pennsylvania Derby winner Connect in the Curlin Stakes two starts back. But Gift Box will be strongly bet in this route race, and it’s a concern that he is 0 for 3 in two-turn races.

I’m taking a flyer here with Sunny Ridge. No two ways about it, Sunny Ridge was awful last time in the Pennsylvania Derby. But he was good two starts back when third in the Haskell to Exaggerator over that one’s beloved wet track. And that race came off a near-five-month layoff for Sunny Ridge, to boot. Sunny Ridge was also a narrowly beaten second to Exaggerator in the mud late last year in the Delta Downs Jackpot, but he’s effective on a fast track, too. He won the Withers on a fast track, and his fourth in the Gotham was far better than it looks on paper because he raced against a profound track bias that day.

Red Smith Handicap

Wake Forest is much the horse to beat. He just missed in the Northern Dancer two back despite being compromised by a slow pace, was third behind two Group 1-level horses in the Canadian International most recently, and won the Grade 1 Man o’ War last spring.

I’m not going to stand against Wake Forest, so let’s use him on top in exactas with Bigger Picture. Bigger Picture fits the profile of so many horses who improved on turf after being claimed by trainer Mike Maker. He was a good fourth two back in the Old Friends Stakes while racing wide on a Kentucky Downs course that favors the inside, and his near miss in Keeneland’s Sycamore most recently puts him in the mix here.