Weekend Warrior for Saturday, May 7: Picks for Humana Distaff, American Turf, Pat Day Mile, Woodford

Everyone wants to see the Kentucky Derby because, well, it’s the freakin’ Derby, America’s most popular horse race. But there is also a strong undercard Saturday at Churchill Downs featuring six other graded stakes races that will not go unnoticed by real racing fans and, of course, horseplayers.

Tepin, a champion and simply one of the best horses in training, has won five straight graded stakes and eight of her last 10 starts. She goes in race 6, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, an event she won last year. And a solid group of older male dirt sprinters hoping to advance in their so-far-this-year Runhappy-less division meet in race 7, the Churchill Downs Stakes.

But it is races 8 through 11 – the Humana Distaff, American Turf, Pat Day Mile, and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – the four stakes that immediately precede the Kentucky Derby (pick five, anyone?) that are especially intriguing to me from a betting standpoint. Let’s take a quick look at them.

Humana Distaff – Wavell Avenue, the upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint last fall and a fine third in the Madison Stakes in her season debut last month behind a classy pair in Sheer Drama and Stopchargingmaria, will take a good bit of beating here. But I’m very interested in Taris.

Taris has gone middle distances in her last three starts and won graded stakes in two of those outings, but she cuts back to seven furlongs Saturday, and that might be her absolute best trip. Moreover, Taris will sit a sweet trip stalking suspect speed. Yes, the speedy Stonetastic is talented, and she finally won going as far as seven furlongs last time at Gulfstream, but she did so with the aid of a speed-biased track.

American Turf – It might sound strange, but it’s possible that the worst thing that ever happened to Airoforce was that he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in the slop on the Churchill main track last fall over such Kentucky Derby starters as Mor Spirit and Mo Tom. I say that because that win put him on the Derby trail, and that path proved a disaster. Airoforce was dismal in the Risen Star and Spiral stakes in his first two starts this year.

But on Saturday, Airoforce moves back to turf, which is what he was meant for, and he could bounce back in a huge way. Airoforce was miles the best in winning the Bourbon Stakes on grass in his second start and narrowly missed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in his most recent start on this surface. A best-of-67 workout last week says Airoforce is still there, yet recent darkened form might help his price.

Pat Day Mile – A man whose opinion I respect told me the other day that Bob Baffert has the best 3-year-old in the country, and he wasn’t talking about the Baffert-trained 3-year-olds most people know about. He was talking about American Freedom, who won his debut at Santa Anita in the slop on the Santa Anita Derby card with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure and now moves right into stakes company.

I am not too proud to listen, and I will feature American Freedom in my wagers. But I will also use Star Hill and Unbridled Outlaw.

Star Hill finished third, albeit a distant one, behind Derby contenders Destin and Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back right off a nice maiden win, and he moved prematurely when fifth in the Blue Grass most recently. As for Unbridled Outlaw, I picked him in the Arkansas Derby, and he didn’t run a step, but he still has interesting back races.

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – Big Blue Kitten, the champion turf male of 2015, and the classy Slumber both make their seasonal debuts here, but I’m more intrigued by Bolo, Divisidero, and Tourist.

Bolo was out of position early when second as the favorite in the Kilroe Mile last time, but I think he’s absolutely as good as these at his best. I feel the same about Divisidero, who was too close and too wide when a narrowly beaten second in the Appleton most recently. Tourist has been tantalizing horseplayers for years, but he can improve on his third in the Maker’s 46 Mile in his 2016 debut, and I do think the added distance is within his scope.