Weekend Warrior for Saturday, May 27: Picks for Arlington Classic, Nassau, Gold Cup

Whether you are the regular Weekend Warrior or the stand-in as in my specific case, inevitably there are weeks when confidence is high in your stakes selections, and other times less so. After all, there are only so many stakes run across North America each Saturday, and some races can be unbettable due to short fields.

Luckily, this week’s plays fall into the confident camp.

Arlington Classic

Having won the Grade 3 Spiral before a 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby when ambitiously placed on dirt, Fast and Accurate probably gets bet down from his 9-2 morning line with a return to turf.

Although the move from dirt and Grade 1 company should benefit him, I’m not convinced that Fast and Accurate is superior to these, though he beat a couple of Saturday’s rivals over Turfway’s Polytrack in the Spiral. Polytrack is a bit of a tweener surface, and though more grass horses seem to take to it than dirt runners, not all grass horses do.

Fast and Accurate’s lone grass victory came in the Sage of Monticello Stakes, a glorified starter allowance run for a $60,000 purse. That race earned him just a 77 Beyer Speed Figure, well below the better grass numbers of other entrants.

As a value-based alternative to him, 7-2 shot Parlor, and 4-1 choice Cowboy Culture, I like 5-1 Giant Payday, who ranks among the leaders in last-race Beyers and has room for improvement with blinkers coming off.

Racing with the shades for the first time last out at Keeneland on April 26, Giant Payday was much more aggressive than usual. He pressed the pace despite restraint from regular jockey Chris Landeros and was caught in the closing sixteenth by Gorgeous Kitten, who waited behind the leaders while saving ground until the stretch.

This was a sneaky-good race from Giant Payday, coming against a legitimate rival who is also in the Arlington Classic, and if Giant Payday settles better Saturday without blinkers, he should finish stronger and perhaps register an upset.

Nassau

The Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine, at a mile on turf, seems like a race in which three fillies – Catch a Glimpse, Stormy Victoria, and Caren – will take the bulk of the public’s support.

My alternative choice is 6-1 outsider Shelbysmile. Though Shelbysmile has never won a graded race, she gives the impression that she has the talent to do so. With a 5-for-8 record on grass, she comes off a hard-fought victory against a stakes-quality allowance field at Keeneland on April 22 in her seasonal debut and fits at the distance of the Nassau, having already won a one-mile stakes at Woodbine last fall.

Toss in that she is trained by Brendan Walsh, an up-and-coming trainer in the sport, and Shelbysmile takes on even more appeal.

Gold Cup at Santa Anita

Returning to his home base, the front-running Midnight Storm is the horse to beat in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita.

Trainers of opposing horses know this, too, and with them likely fearing that there will be little hope of catching Midnight Storm if he gets his own way, I expect to see American Freedom and/or Cupid engage him early. Both horses are quick and poised to show speed. American Freedom adds blinkers and drew the rail, placing him in a “send” position, and Cupid is at his best throwing down early and is fresh.

So, with a contested pace anticipated in the Gold Cup, a 1 1/4-mile dirt race, I’m going with an off-the-pace threat in Follow Me Crev.

A winner of four of his last eight since being transferred from turf to dirt, he has come up a little short in major stakes races at Santa Anita, finishing third behind Shaman Ghost and Midnight Storm in the Big Cap on March 11 and second to Collected in the Grade 2 Californian on April 22.

The good news is that Shaman Ghost and Collected aren’t running Saturday. Of those who beat Follow Me Crev in those two recent stakes, only Midnight Storm is back, and perhaps he will get softened up early and grow tired going a distance that appears to be an eighth of a mile or more beyond his best distance.