Weekend Warrior for Saturday, May 13: Picks for Laz Barrera, Hanshin Cup, Peter Pan

Belmont Park has four stakes on its Saturday card – the Grade 1, $400,000 Man o’ War; the Grade 2, $250,000 Ruffian; the Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay.

Unfortunately, Saturday’s weather forecast for New York is terrible. Heavy rain – as much as two inches in total – is supposed to begin early in the morning and will have an impact, especially on the Man o’ War and Beaugay, which are scheduled for turf.

Stakes of note elsewhere include the Grade 3, $100,000 Lazaro Barrera at Santa Anita and the Grade 3, $100,000 Hanshin Cup at Arlington.

Lazaro Barrera Stakes

There may be only six horses in this race, but there is actually plenty to consider. American Anthem is sure to take a lot of money even if he is looking for a career reset. American Anthem was a narrowly beaten second to Gormley in the Sham Stakes early this year. At the time, the Sham seemed like a strongly run race, and American Anthem’s effort in it seemed huge considering that it was only his second career start and his first around two turns.

But the Sham fooled many of us. American Anthem came back with dismal performances in the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, and now he lands in a race clearly designed to get his career back on track. Maybe the class drop and cutback in distance will do the trick for American Anthem, but he will be overbet relative to his actual chances of victory, and I’m looking elsewhere.

Aristocratic will be the most popular alternative to American Anthem, and there certainly is nothing wrong with him. Aristocratic comes into this off a career-best blowout score in the San Pedro, in which he disputed a fast early pace with the second betting choice, who wound up a distant fifth and last. I just find Kimbear the more appealing alternative.

Despite making four of his seven career starts on turf, Kimbear’s dirt performances are of significantly higher quality. He finished second in his first try on dirt late last year to Iliad, who came back to win the San Vicente with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, finished second to the brilliant but star-crossed Mastery in the San Felipe with a 95 Beyer, and was beaten just two lengths in the Santa Anita Derby as the 3-1 favorite.

Kimbear’s second try on dirt two starts back was a resounding maiden score over Sonneteer, who followed with a second in the Rebel and was beaten just two lengths when fourth to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby.

Kimbear finished sixth most recently in the Santa Anita Derby after being steadied early on the first turn, which put him farther off the pace than he might otherwise have been. Kimbear didn’t really stay through the stretch after making a run on the far turn, but that only makes me think the cutback to an extended one-turn sprint like this will be right in his wheelhouse.

Hanshin Cup

Ghost Hunter will be tough here. He was a fine third in the Henry Clark Stakes in his recent return from a 5 1/2-month break and now switches from turf back to synthetic, on which he is 8 for 12. But I’m going with Rated R Superstar.

Rated R Superstar also recently returned from a five-month layoff with a third-place finish in a salty allowance at Keeneland. He also has some interesting back races, like his win in the Carry Back last summer and his on-the-board finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity and Iroquois at 2.

But what closed the deal for me is that according to DRF Formulator, Rated R Superstar’s trainer, Kenny McPeek, is 9 for 30 over the last five years, with a $2.77 return on investment, with horses making their second starts off layoffs on synthetic surfaces.

Peter Pan Stakes

Maybe it’s foolish to pick against Timeline, who is likely to get the same sort of sealed, sloppy track Saturday that he did when he won last time by 13 1/2 lengths and earned a 101 Beyer to make it 2 for 2 in his immensely promising career. But I’m taking Impressive Edge for a mild upset.

Although he was beaten seven lengths, Impressive Edge ran well last out when fourth to eventual Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby, in which he was three wide throughout. That was Impressive Edge’s first route try, and he can improve upon it.