Weekend Warrior for Saturday, March 5: Picks for Gotham, Mac Diarmida, Gulfstream Handicap
The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, at $500,000, is the richest race of the day Saturday and is supported by the Grade 2, $200,000 Mac Diarmida and the Grade 3, $150,000 The Very One Stakes. But the sensational Songbird was entered in the Grade 3, $100,000 Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita, which certainly will command everyone’s attention. And the stakes are getting interesting again at Aqueduct, where the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham is the main event.
Gotham Stakes
Shagaf was so impressive in winning his debut last fall by six lengths going a mile at Aqueduct that he entered this year with many considering him a prime candidate for the Kentucky Derby. And he still is an interesting Derby candidate, even if his allowance victory in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream raised some questions.
On the bright side, Shagaf won that Gulfstream race, again going a one-turn mile. But after pulling a perfect trip and opening up in midstretch as though he was going to win by many lengths, Shagaf had to work hard to score by two over some uninspiring competition. Moreover, his time was slow, resulting in a mediocre Beyer Speed Figure of only 78.
Now, I’m not suggesting that those who liked Shagaf before his Gulfstream win should turn their backs on him. However, in the context of the Gotham, I couldn’t endorse a strong position on Shagaf, not off a slow win while making his two-turn and stakes debut, especially as the potential favorite.
Rally Cry finished third behind Shagaf at Gulfstream after losing all chance when forced to check on the rail early on the far turn. But if Rally Cry wins, I lose. I don’t believe there are really bad trips in slow races, and I wasn’t crazy about Rally Cry’s first two performances.
Sunny Ridge and Adventist finished first and third in the Withers Stakes, Aqueduct’s prelude to this event. Sunny Ridge is admirably consistent, and Adventist should only improve since the Withers was just his second start and he had a wide trip. But the Withers became a much softer race when 1-2 favorite Flexibility came up totally empty and finished fourth.
I like Conquest Big E. He made his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes against Kentucky Derby future-book favorite Mohaymen, and I won’t hold his fourth-place finish in that much tougher spot against him. Conquest Big E was compromised that day by a slow pace and a wide trip on the far turn, where he made a nice run.
Last year, Conquest Big E sandwiched a route maiden victory and an allowance score around an eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race for which he simply wasn’t ready. And while it’s true that those two wins came in the slop, Conquest Big E handled a fast track just fine when a sharp second in his well-bet debut to Brody’s Cause, who came back to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Mac Diarmida Stakes
I usually view fall turf results at Aqueduct with some skepticism. The course is often deep, and it’s the end of the New York turf season, meaning the participating horses are frequently past peak form. But the victory in the Red Smith there last November by Mr Maybe, my play here, was an exception.
:: Gulfstream: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
Mr Maybe could not have been more impressive in winning the Red Smith, making him 2 for 2 since moving into Chad Brown’s barn. Despite trailing through fractions of 51.31 seconds and 1:16.94 – splits that were absurd even by Aqueduct fall standards – Mr Maybe unleashed a powerful late kick to win laughing. This will be Mr Maybe’s first start since, but Brown is a tremendous layoff trainer, and there is no reason to use this race as a prep. The Mac Diarmida is just as rich and is the same grade as next month’s Pan American.
Gulfstream Park Handicap
Valid will be tough off a game second in the Donn and while cutting back to one mile, perhaps his best distance. But I’m going with Stanford.
Stanford’s willing second in the Fred Hooper on the Donn undercard off a six-month layoff was good, and he certainly can improve. But that effort looks even better when you consider that he was involved early in what proved to be a destructive pace.