One can safely say with no hyperbole that Saturday is a day of major stakes racing. Gulfstream Park offers a stakes-packed card topped by a critical prep for the Kentucky Derby – the Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby. Santa Anita gets back in full swing (and it’s terrific to be able to say that) with a program that includes four graded stakes races, headed by two Grade 1, $400,000 events – the Beholder, and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And on the other side of the world, the $12 million Dubai World Cup will be decided along with an armful of important undercard races. Florida Derby The big story out of last month’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, Gulfstream’s prep for this, was the insane early pace. It is the reason why Hidden Scroll remains so highly regarded despite finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth as the 6-5 favorite, and why Fountain of Youth one-two finishers Code of Honor and Bourbon War still have to prove they aren’t entirely pace dependent. Hidden Scroll, who had just a single one-turn victory at first asking going into his route debut in the Fountain of Youth, was subjected to bizarre tactics. He was directed to the early lead over a hopelessly overmatched 132-1 shot who wound up finishing a distant last of 11 through blistering fractions of 22.80 seconds, 45.69, and 1:10.42. Yet despite that ridiculous trip, Hidden Scroll was beaten only three lengths for all the money, which was remarkable. In the meantime, stretch runners Code of Honor and Bourbon War fell into a pace setup they could have barely dared to dream of, and capitalized. Ideally, Hidden Scroll will be given a more patient ride this time, and that could easily translate to a decisive victory. But that is not a given. Hidden Scroll also has questions to address. For one, can Hidden Scroll effectively rate off the early lead? If he is to be more deliberate in expending his early energy, he will likely have to rate due to the presence of pace players such as the absurdly overmatched Hard Belle (who might close at over 150-1) and Maximum Security. The latter romped sprinting in all three of his starts, but sharp connections had him in for a $16,000 tag three months ago in a maiden race in which he wasn’t even the favorite. Perhaps even more importantly, can Hidden Scroll rebound from what had to be a draining Fountain of Youth outing, and rebound right now? Remember, after just two starts, he has little racing foundation to fall back on. I doubt this Florida Derby will feature a pace meltdown like Fountain of Youth did, but I feel it still sets up well for a closer. I’m going back to Bourbon War, who was my Fountain of Youth pick. Code of Honor got significant first run on Bourbon War in the Fountain of Youth and that made the difference. But Bourbon War was rapidly getting to Code of Honor late, and galloped out well ahead of him. My hope is this time, Bourbon War will be closer through the middle stages. I believe he will relish this slightly longer distance (whereas I wonder about Code of Honor on that score), and think he can again move forward form-wise. Pan American Stakes As has often been the case in recent years in stakes such as this, trainer Mike Maker has a strong hand. He saddles Bigger Picture, overwhelming winner of the Connally in his 2019 bow, and Soglio, sharp in his last eight starts. But they drew the two outside posts in this three-turn affair at Gulfstream, and they might get stuck with wide trips. I prefer Canessar. Canessar made his first start in seven months in the McKnight Stakes most recently and had a lousy trip, encountering traffic for the first third of the race, and being three, then four, and then five wide around each turn. He will benefit from that outing and is primed to return to his sharp form of last summer. San Carlos Stakes Dr. Dorr is returning off an August layoff following six straight starts around two turns, two against champion older dirt male Accelerate. Some might see this extended sprint at Santa Anita as Dr. Dorr’s prep for upcoming two-turn events, but I think these conditions actually suit him nicely. Dr. Dorr projects to sit a sweet outside stalking trip off a contested early pace, and his wins over the track last year in the Californian and Santana Mile are plenty good enough against this field.