Weekend Warrior for Saturday, March 26: Picks for Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds Oaks, Sanibel Island
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
The Dubai World Cup will be run half a world away, but Fair Grounds is the center of attention on these shores Saturday, with a stakes-packed, 15-race card led by four Grade 2 events – the $1 million Louisiana Derby, the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, the $400,000 New Orleans Handicap, and the $300,000 Mervin Muniz Memorial. The only other graded event Saturday is the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Ana at Santa Anita.
Louisiana Derby
Horseplayers should be aware that the prep races at Fair Grounds last month for Saturday’s main-track stakes were run on a surface that was strongly biased in favor of inside runners. And that point should be considered when assessing those preps.
For example, there was a big gap between the first four finishers in the Risen Star, the local stepping-stone to the Louisiana Derby, and the rest of the Risen Star field. And it is not a coincidence that the first four finishers in the Risen Star – Gun Runner, Forevamo, Mo Tom, and Candy My Boy – all spent most, if not all, of the race in the 1 or 2 path, on by far the best footing.
As if that weren’t reason enough to be skeptical of those four, there is also this: Despite being aided by a powerful track bias, Gun Runner’s final time was not as fast as it maybe should have been under the circumstances and resulted in a mediocre Beyer Speed Figure of 90.
I’m playing against the first four out of the Risen Star, and one way to proceed is to look at the shippers. But I’m not taken with the shippers, including Greenpointcrusader, who is the most accomplished of them. Greenpointcrusader moved way up in the slop when he won the Champagne, and while he did okay on a fast track when second most recently in the Holy Bull, he was still a soundly beaten, and I wonder about him going two turns.
The other course of action is to side with a horse who was compromised by the bias in the Risen Star, and that’s what I’m doing. Tom’s Ready, who finished seventh, is one such horse. But I’m going back – again – to Uncle Walter.
I picked Uncle Walter in this column two starts back in the Lecomte, and he showed enough in finishing third that day after being close to an early pace that fell apart for me to take him back in the Risen Star. And Uncle Walter rewarded me by finishing last of 11, beaten 41 1/2 lengths.
However, Uncle Walter broke from post 10 in the Risen Star, and given how the track was playing, I knew well before his race that whatever chance he had was gone. Sure enough, he raced four to five wide around the track, strongly against the bias. Uncle Walter now gets blinkers, has worked very sharply lately, and is 20-1 on the morning line. Bombs away.
Fair Grounds Oaks
Land Over Sea might be the happiest horse in America. She ran against the brilliant champion Songbird in her last five starts – finishing second in three of those encounters – and now finally gets away from her. If Land Over Sea is anywhere near her morning-line price of 3-1, she would be a great bet. But I think her price will be much lower.
The same track-bias considerations that applied to the Louisiana Derby apply here and to the local prep for this, the Rachel Alexandra. Midnight On Oconee and Stageplay both raced well out on the track and against the bias in the Rachel Alexandra, but I’m going with Midnight On Oconee. Not only did she fight on to be a game second, she did so after also racing close to a strong early pace that otherwise collapsed.
Sanibel Island Handicap
If Gulfstream’s Rainbow 6 survives to Saturday’s mandatory payout day, then this will be the penultimate leg of a sequence that will have a carryover in excess of $4 million and a total pool that might eclipse eight figures.
I’ll be leaning here on Lira against Harmonize. Harmonize’s form last year was good – she was a two-time stakes winner – but I question the company she kept. Lira, on the other hand, faced a freak in Breeders’ Cup winner Catch a Glimpse in the recent Herecomesthebride, and her game second was more impressive than her three prior victories.