Weekend Warrior for Saturday, March 25: Picks for Spiral, Bourbonette Oaks, Sunland Derby

Saturday is Dubai World Cup Day, featuring the brilliant Arrogate. But on these shores, a half-million-dollar race puts Turfway Park in the spotlight. Turfway’s Grade 3 Spiral Stakes is the richest race of the day here. The Grade 2, $200,000 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita and the Grade 3, $100,000 Skip Away at Gulfstream are our other graded stakes on Saturday.

The richest U.S. race of the weekend is Sunday’s Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby at Sunland Park. And thanks to an early draw, this can be a true Weekend Warrior this week as I’m using the Sunland Derby as one of my three plays.

Spiral Stakes

Kitten’s Cat and Parlor both come into this off fine efforts on grass in Florida, which suggests they could successfully transition to Turfway’s Polytrack. Kitten’s Cat won the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulfstream two starts back and was a game second in the Palm Beach Stakes there most recently to the talented Ticonderoga.

Parlor didn’t face nearly as tough company in his allowance score in Tampa last month, but he couldn’t have been a more dominating winner. Although he had a perfect trip, Parlor came from last into a slow pace to score by daylight while kept well in hand. He and Kitten’s Cat are logical win contenders, but I like Soglio.

Soglio is coming off a series of turf starts in Southern California. He won the first of those at Del Mar despite having to rally wide and subsequently at Santa Anita finished second in the Eddie Logan Stakes and third in an allowance event. Superficially, Soglio’s last two starts make him a threat, but his efforts in both races were even better than they look on paper.

Soglio’s late kick was severely compromised both times by slow paces. He also had to go wide on the far turn in both races yet still finished willingly. Soglio should get a more favorable pace setup this time, and he’s good enough to capitalize.

Bourbonette Oaks

Darkwingsoverdubai and Delphinia posted comparatively big Beyer Speed Figure wins in their most recent starts. However, those scores were accomplished sprinting, and this is a two-turn mile. Darkwingsoverdubai and Delphinia are certainly capable of winning, but with both stretching out for the first time, I prefer China Grove.

China Grove ran well in winning the Wide Country Stakes at Laurel in her recent 3-year-old debut. The Wide Country was run on a day when there was a severe bias against horses running near the inside, and China Grove was in the No. 2 path for the first five furlongs of that seven-furlong race. Despite that, she finished well after moving out to the No. 3 path and scored decisively.

Adding to China Grove’s appeal, three starts back she was a close and gaining second in the Rags to Riches Stakes at this distance, albeit around one turn at Churchill Downs. China Grove gained the place that day over Farrell, who has won three straight stakes since then.

Sunland Derby

Bronze Age probably will be the favorite off a maiden victory at Santa Anita over a runner-up and third-place finisher who both came back to win, an outing in which he earned a field-best 93 Beyer. But I wonder how solid that Beyer is. The runner-up fell off nine Beyer points in his subsequent victory, and the third finisher only matched his figure when he came back to win on his preferred turf.

I have no such Beyer reservations with Kimbear, my play. The two Beyers that Kimbear earned in his two attempts on dirt, seemingly his best surface, fit well here and yet might even undersell him. Three starts back in his dirt debut, Kimbear was easily second-best to Iliad, who came back to win the San Vicente Stakes with a 96 Beyer, fashioning a four-point improvement, and followed with a second in the San Felipe to the highly talented but terribly unlucky Mastery, earning a 95 Beyer.

Last time out, in his second try on dirt, Kimbear recorded a romping maiden victory at Santa Anita over Sonneteer. Sonneteer came back last Saturday to finish second in the Rebel Stakes at 112-1, earning an 89 Beyer that was a 12-point leap over what he earned when second to Kimbear.