Weekend Warrior for Saturday, March 19: Picks for Rebel, Inside Information, Razorback
The $500,000 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita is the only Grade 1 event on Saturday, but there are other stakes worthy of attention. Oaklawn has a graded stakes tripleheader topped by the Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel, while the main event at Gulfstream is the Grade 2, $200,000 Inside Information.
Rebel Stakes
Visually, Suddenbreakingnews’s victory in last month’s Southwest Stakes in his 3-year-old debut was impressive. After racing last of 14 early and still being far back turning for home, Suddenbreakingnews came from a little more than five lengths back in midstretch to win by almost three lengths, going away. But for me, the Southwest doesn’t stand up to close scrutiny.
The last five-sixteenths of a mile of the Southwest was run in 32.84 seconds, slow compared with some of the come-home fractions in the four 1 1/16-mile races run earlier on that card. The final five-sixteenths of the Southwest was faster than the split maiden routes run as races 5 and 7, but it was slower than starter-allowance horses came home in race 2 and, most damning, slower than non-winners-of-two $10,000 claimers came home in race 4.
In other words, the slow final fraction of the Southwest gave Suddenbreakingnews virtually all day to make his late run. And yet, while the Teletimer says the Southwest fell apart late, it is noteworthy that the third-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishers were all involved in the early pace. There are different ways to read that, but three pace horses still being around at the finish of a race that collapsed underscores the potential weakness of that race.
The bottom line: While Suddenbreakingnews has every right to improve off his seasonal debut, I’m playing against horses coming out of the Southwest.
Cupid, the lone Santa Anita shipper in this field, is the logical alternative and is my play. Everyone knows how deadly Bob Baffert, Cupid’s trainer, is when he ships for Oaklawn stakes, but here are the facts: Over the last five years, Baffert is 9 for 17 (53 percent) with shippers in graded stakes at Oaklawn for a $2 return on investment of $3.47. The numbers are even stronger with 3-year-olds. Baffert is 8 for 13 (62 percent) for a $4.30 ROI, even after that ROI was knocked down by American Pharoah, who won last year’s Rebel at 2-5.
Of course, these numbers wouldn’t matter if Cupid were a stiff, which he most definitely is not. He finished second two races ago in his second career start to Denman’s Call, who came back to be a good third to Nyquist in the San Vicente Stakes, earning a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. And while Cupid didn’t beat much when he stretched out to a route most recently, he did it the right way. He won off and easily after being three to four wide around the track, galloped out with gusto, and gave the strong impression that there is lots more where that came from.
Inside Information Stakes
Stonetastic is a fast and talented mare and was strong in winning her seasonal debut last month over the track. But unless she catches a wet, speed-biased track – rain is in the forecast for Gulfstream on Saturday – she is a big question going seven furlongs, the distance here.
Yes, two of Stonetastic’s four unsuccessful attempts at seven furlongs came in the Breeders’ Cup, and it’s hard to hold that against her. But she showed vulnerability at this distance last summer at Saratoga when she couldn’t hold on over an opponent who was coming off an even longer layoff.
:: Gulfstream: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
I’m going with Kiss to Remember despite the four-month layoff. Kiss to Remember is proven at this trip. She was beaten just a length when second in the Grade 1 Ballerina last summer at seven furlongs even though a slow pace did not flatter her closing style.
Razorback Handicap
I have respect for the classy Upstart, who routinely runs big while fresh, but I prefer Shotgun Kowboy and Carve, in that order.
Shotgun Kowboy ran wide against a strong inside bias at Fair Grounds in his recent seasonal debut but will benefit from that outing and sports some route performances last fall that fit well here.
As for Carve, he raced right on the deadest rail you will ever see last summer at Mountaineer. He was a willing third in his recent return and should improve.