Weekend Warrior for Saturday, March 10: Picks for Santa Anita Handicap, Tom Fool Handicap, Tampa Bay Derby

Santa Anita has many big days, but Big Cap Day is among its biggest. And Saturday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap is supported by two other Grade 1 events – the Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the Triple Bend, each worth $400,000 – as well as a strong Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe, which drew top Kentucky Derby candidates Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie.

Saturday is Tampa Bay Derby Day, the biggest day of the year at Tampa Bay Downs. There are four other stakes on that card, including a loaded Grade 2, $225,000 Hillsborough.

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Finally, Aqueduct’s Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham completes, along with the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe, a Saturday hat trick of Kentucky Derby points races. There also are three other stakes on the Aqueduct card.

Santa Anita Handicap

The Big Cap offers an example of how differently people might interpret trips, in this instance the trips of the first two finishers in last month’s San Pasqual – Accelerate and Prime Attraction.

Prime Attraction was five wide on the first turn, four wide on the far turn, and five wide into the stretch in the San Pasqual. He lost by less than two lengths to Accelerate, who was on the rail almost every step of the way. Not an easy trip, for sure.

Accelerate, meanwhile, was in tight at the start and shuffled back, was checked on the rail midway down the backstretch while in a bid for the lead, falling back to fourth or fifth, and then finally got through on the rail into the stretch to make his winning move.

Prime Attraction might have lost much more ground in the San Pasqual than Accelerate, but I still thought Accelerate was clearly best. Beyond his trouble, Accelerate was supposed to be in control of the San Pasqual pace, and it turned out he was anything but. I feel the bad setup Accelerate overcame was more meaningful than simple ground loss. Accelerate should be a clean pace factor Saturday, and I like him to win right back.

Tom Fool Handicap

This is the main supporting stakes event at Aqueduct, and there are a lot of ways for the betting public to go. But my play is Favorite Tale.

Favorite Tale comes off a fourth as the favorite in Laurel’s Fire Plug Stakes after setting the pace under pressure near the rail. Oddly, the day of the Fire Plug was a rare day at Laurel when the rail wasn’t quicksand. But even on those days, I still prefer my Laurel horses to be outside, so Favorite Tale gets a pass for that loss. He was a solid winner of the Dave’s Friend two starts back in arguably his best performance since a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint of 2015, a year when he was one of the better sprinters in the country. I like Favorite Tale’s draw toward the outside, and I like that the only other true speed is Green Gratto, who hasn’t been in form for a long time.

I fear Do Share, who is steady and from the streaking Linda Rice barn, but I’m against Great Stuff, Threefiveindia, and Skyler’s Scramjet. Great Stuff capitalized on a pace meltdown when he won the Toboggan last time and is unlikely to get a similar setup this time. Threefiveindia was a disappointing third in the Gravesend most recently after pulling a perfect trip, while Skyler’s Scramjet, though a winner in three of his last four starts, took a step backward in his latest score.

Tampa Bay Derby

The Tampa Bay Derby figures to have a different pace scenario than last month’s Sam F. Davis, the local prep for this, and that will be the case even if Free Drop Billy and Enticed make it to the Gotham as intended, and scratch. Flameaway parlayed an easy early lead into a Davis upset, but he won’t be getting another easy lead this time with the presence of the speedy blowout Pasco winner World of Trouble.

I like Vino Rosso, who ran only okay winning his first two career starts, but who took a step forward in terms of Beyer Speed Figures when a close third in the Davis. What was most intriguing about Vino Rosso’s Davis performance, though, was despite seemingly running only in spots, he finished strongly and galloped out in front. He gets blinkers Saturday, a positive equipment change that should help him focus.