Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 27: Picks for Gold Cup, Eatontown, Mother Goose
Big-event cards can be found Saturday at Santa Anita, Churchill Downs, and Prairie Meadows. At Santa Anita, the Grade 1, $500,000 Gold Cup and the Grade 1, $300,000 Triple Bend head a program that includes two other graded stakes. The closing-night card at Churchill also has four stakes, led by the Grade 2, $200,000 Firecracker. And there are three graded stakes Saturday night at Prairie Meadows, topped by the Grade 3, $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap.
At Belmont Park, the feature is the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes.
Gold Cup at Santa Anita
It’s hard to take a strong position against Catch a Flight. He won the Precisionist and Californian in his last two starts – the two preludes to this event – and he simply might be better than the group he faces here. However, while there are reasons to think he won’t have any trouble stretching out to the 10 furlongs he must travel Saturday, the fact is that he has not yet won at this distance. And as the favorite, that makes him a less-than-appealing betting proposition.
Moreno finished a sharp second to Catch a Flight in the Californian, and he ran every bit as well as the winner. Moreno drew the dirty-work trip keeping Big Cazanova honest on the front end, while Catch a Flight fell into the perfect stalking trip just off those two. But even though he just missed in the Travers at 3, 1 1/4 miles is not Moreno’s best game, and he has other speed to deal with again.
Hoppertunity and Finnegans Wake will be popular alternatives, but they’re not for me. Hoppertunity might improve off his third in the Stephen Foster, but he will have to in order to win. In fact, I don’t think he ran particularly well in his last three starts, and that includes his dream rail-trip win in the San Pasqual.
Finnegans Wake will like the distance, but I doubt he will like the footing. His back dirt races just aren’t that good. Turf is his game.
I’m taking a shot with Hard Aces. Hard Aces changed hands after a big Beyer Speed Figure win in the Louisiana Handicap and finished only two lengths behind Moreno and Catch a Flight in the Santa Anita Handicap in his first start for trainer John Sadler, who hadn’t had him long and was just getting to know him. Hard Aces was dismal in the subsequent Oaklawn Handicap, but I’m throwing that race out as Sadler has weak numbers shipping outside California.
Hard Aces came back with a third behind Catch a Flight and Moreno in the Californian, an outing I’m taking as a prep for this, and his works since have been sharper. And while he’s also a question mark at the distance, there are reasons to think he should like it, and his double-digit odds make him a more acceptable risk. I think this will be Hard Aces’s best race for Sadler.
Eatontown Stakes
I don’t know if Bocaiuva is as good as Kenzadargent and Stellar Path, who both sport very sharp wins this year. But I am duty bound to bet Bocaiuva back after the trips she has had in her two U.S. starts, both of which have to be seen on replay to be believed.
Bocaiuva made her American debut in a salty allowance race at Keeneland, was well bet into 11 opponents, and literally had trouble all the way around the track yet still tried to run. For that reason, I loved her last time in the Gallorette and expected her to be forwardly placed in a paceless race. Instead, she was shuffled and checked back out of it to last in an instant and was steadied again when launching a rally in upper stretch, only to have her rider lose his whip soon after. Bocaiuva still managed to finish fourth, sucking me back in again.
Mother Goose
Danessa Deluxe, my play here, is another trip horse out of a stakes at Pimlico on Preakness weekend. Danessa Deluxe ran in the Black-Eyed Susan, in which I projected her to be a prominent part of a pace that figured to be very slow. The pace was indeed slow, but after breaking sharply, Danessa Deluxe was taken back and then shuffled back even more on the rail in the run around the first turn. Under the circumstances, she did well to finish fourth.