Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 25: Picks for Ohio Derby, Bed o' Roses, Chicago Handicap
Although Santa Anita has the two best races in North America on Saturday – the Grade 1 Gold Cup and Grade 1 Triple Bend – the Weekend Warrior sees no apparent weaknesses in the expected favorites for those contests. So, the Warrior has his gaze centered elsewhere on a few midpriced shots.
Ohio Derby
With a $500,000 purse for the second straight year, the Ohio Derby drew a solid cast led by Kentucky Derby also-ran Mo Tom, plus a trio of horses who were mildly competitive in the Grade 2 Peter Pan at Belmont.
Although I could see the regularly unlucky Mo Tom winning, on principle I can’t back a deep closer with a history of landing in trouble, particularly one who has a high Beyer Speed Figure of 88 in a rich race for 3-year-olds.
My value-oriented play is Adventist, who ran deceptively well in the Peter Pan. In between rivals while racing in fourth down the backstretch run, Adventist was in a position that would have discouraged some horses, being boxed in and taking dirt in his face, but he stayed on to be fourth.
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Favorably drawn in post 3 in a 1 1/8-mile race in which most of the speed appears too cheap to contend, I’m anticipating a far better trip for him. I expect he should land in a stalking position behind the front-runners and be in position to pounce and potentially get the jump on Mo Tom and fellow late runner Wild About Deb, who edged him for the show in the Peter Pan.
Barring notable scratches, Adventist is likely to drift up from his 3-1 morning-line odds. Mo Tom is going to start shorter than his 5-2 price, and Decorated Soldier at 12-1 is crazily high for a horse with Todd Pletcher training and John Velazquez riding.
Expect something in the range of 4-1 or 9-2 on Adventist, who doesn’t have the big-name connections of the other major players. He also races with blinkers off, giving him potential room to improve with the equipment change.
Bed o’ Roses
As with Mo Tom, I’m going against Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Wavell Avenue in the seven-furlong Bed o’ Roses at Belmont because she’s a closer. That is a hurdle in any dirt race and perhaps even more so in this race, which is lacking pace.
The only true speed horses are West Coast Chick and Mayla, with West Coast Chick rating much higher on Moss Pace Figures than Mayla. But I suspect West Coast Chick will be overbet on the lone-speed angle, and with Mayla, I’m not sold on her from a class perspective.
So, I went looking for a horse with hidden speed who might have the potential to sit right behind that duo and pounce while the late-running Wavell Avenue is still winding up her rally. I settled on By the Moon.
She has been second or third a quarter-mile into the race in half of her 10 starts, including when she won the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont in 2014. By the Moon has also led at the six-furlong call in four of her five starts in routes.
Beyond style, she has kept top company, racing against the likes of Curalina, Cavorting, and Paulassilverlining in recent starts.
Chicago Handicap
Coming off three consecutive off-the-board finishes, including an 18-length thumping in the Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs, Sarah Sis may scare off some bettors. Her questionable form is enough to make many look in the past performances for the next runner.
But I see the possibility for a turnaround as she returns to her home base at Arlington Park, where she began her career auspiciously on Polytrack as a juvenile in 2014. That year, she debuted with an 11 3/4-length romp in a maiden race on Polytrack and followed with a runner-up finish in the Arlington-Washington Lassie behind Quality Rocks.
Since then, for a span of 15 races, Sarah Sis has raced exclusively on dirt, winning a few graded stakes along the way.
Until now, there hasn’t been much need to return her to Polytrack. But the Chicago Handicap fits her in terms of the seven-furlong distance and Grade 3 company. She is the 7-2 second choice on the line, which seems about right with Minks Aprise and Kathballu likely to take action.