Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 20: Picks for Ohio Derby, LeVine Memorial, Obeah
With only three graded stakes on Saturday’s schedule, led by the Grade 2, $200,000 Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita, this is a good time to give a little attention to three tracks that don’t often get play here – ThistleDown, Parx Racing, and Delaware Park.
Ohio Derby
With a purse of $500,000, ThistleDown’s signature event is actually the richest race of the weekend in North America. And of the nine entered, six exit starts in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. Of the remaining three, Whiskey Ticket is the best by far, but I just didn’t think the Illinois Derby he narrowly won, albeit in only the second start of his career, was a strong race. For me, the Ohio Derby boils down to Tencendur and Divining Rod.
Divining Rod ran well when a soundly beaten third in the Preakness. He made a strong run on the far turn in an attempt to actually win the race, as opposed to others who employed a more conservative strategy trying collect only a minor award. But Divining Rod also seemed to relish the suddenly sloppy track he caught.
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Tencendur comes out of the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished a distant 17th. But I’m not holding that against him as a lot of nice horses are badly beaten in the Derby. For me, what separates Tencendur from some other Derby also-rans was his strong second two starts back in the Wood Memorial. Tencendur’s effort in the Wood, in which he was easily second-best, was thoroughly legitimate. And his defeat by only two lengths in that race was flattered when Wood winner Frosted came back to be fourth in the Derby, in which he was the only one to rally meaningfully into the slow pace, and finished a game second in the Belmont Stakes.
Tencendur has trained well since the Derby, and I’m looking for him to rebound to his Wood Memorial form.
Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap
Stallwalkin’ Dude, A. P. Indian, and Coup de Grace might wind up the first three favorites in this feature at Parx, but they can all be played against. Stallwalkin’ Dude is in sharp form. He was a game, if soundly beaten, second in the True North last time out to the emerging sprint force Rock Fall, and he won his prior two starts. But his trainer, David Jacobson, has been uncharacteristically cold in recent weeks, and I want to see that barn bounce back before I side with one of its entrants.
I liked A. P. Indian last time in his decisive win in the Decathlon, but he rode the crest of a strong inside bias that day. A. P. Indian is improving and might not need a bias in his favor to be effective. But it is against my nature to go with a horse off a career-best win that was bias-aided.
If the Coup de Grace who won the Amsterdam and finished third in the King’s Bishop last summer shows up, he will be formidable. But Coup de Grace’s two efforts this year were very disappointing, and he must show me more before I anticipate a return to form.
I’m going with Dream Saturday, whose third in the Carter at 31-1 in his most recent appearance was even better than it looks on paper. Dads Caps and Green Gratto, the first two finishers in the Carter, saved all the ground. By contrast, Dream Saturday was caught four to five wide on the far turn, so he did well to be beaten only a little more than two lengths. Dream Saturday won his prior two starts in good fashion and is suitably fresh for a Michelle Nevin barn that specializes in such runners.
Obeah Stakes
This is the local stepping-stone to next month’s Delaware Handicap. And while I acknowledge that Blue Violet and Joint Return have compiled reasonably competitive form against better than they meet here, I prefer Sea Shadow.
Sea Shadow got blinkers on most recently in the Winter Melody Stakes over the track and responded with a dominating victory that was by far the best race of her career. Sea Shadow did draw the far-outside post Saturday, but there is a long enough run to the first turn, there isn’t a great deal of speed, and I expect her to be forwardly placed. If Sea Shadow duplicates her last, she’ll win.