Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 2: Picks for the Penn Mile, Pennsylvania Governor's Cup, Connaught Cup

Even though it’s only one week before Justify’s attempt at a sweep of the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes along with the Breeders’ Cup-like card that supports the Belmont, Saturday’s stakes schedule is actually an interesting one.

Unique Bella, last year’s champion female sprinter, heads a small but classy field in the Grade 1, $400,000 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. The $200,000 Snow Chief will also be run on that card.

At Belmont, Analyze It, unbeaten and untested after three career starts, goes in the Grade 2, $200,000 Pennine Ridge Stakes. Analyze It will have an intriguing opponent in Catholic Boy. Catholic Boy, briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail early this year after winning the Remsen last fall in his first start on dirt, returns Saturday to turf, on which he won the With Anticipation and was fourth after trouble in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Saturday also finds big doings at Penn National, where the Grade 2, $500,000 Penn Mile tops a program that includes six other stakes. Most notable of the undercard stakes are the $200,000 Penn Oaks and the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup. Both, like the Penn Mile, are scheduled to be run on turf.

Unfortunately, wet weather late in the week in the Northeast could have an adverse impact at Penn National and Belmont.

Penn Mile

Let’s note right away that the horse I like here, Hawkish, is cross-entered in the Pennine Ridge. Sure, the Pennine Ridge is at 1 1/8 miles and the Penn Mile is at, well, one mile. But I’m not convinced the difference in distance, or purse, or grade classification is enough to really distinguish two stakes races for 3-year-olds on the turf in the same geographical region that were, for whatever reason, once again scheduled for the same day.

Anyway, I’ll speculate that Hawkish’s connections will see the Penn Mile, without Analyze It and Catholic Boy, as the race they have a much better chance of winning, and go with it. At least I hope so, because Hawkish can win this at what should be a decent price.

Hawkish finished behind Maraud and Therapist when fourth in the Palm Beach Stakes two starts back, and would meet those two again at Penn National. And while those two are improving and have won stakes since the Palm Beach – Maraud landed the American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard and Therapist got up in the Cutler Bay – I think Hawkish is a much better horse now than he was when he ran in the Palm Beach.

Hawkish was making only his second start in the Palm Beach off a Gulfstream maiden win early this year in which he beat a good one in Funny Duck, runaway winner of the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard. Hawkish was also more compromised by the slow Palm Beach pace than Maraud and Therapist, but still made a run before weakening late. In any case, Hawkish showed significant advancement winning an allowance race most recently at Aqueduct, after showing improved positional speed, and earning a 92 Beyer Figure that puts him right with Maraud and Therapist.

Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup

Pure Sensation had another good year last year, winning two turf sprint stakes at Parx Racing, his favorite course, and being beaten only a little more than a length in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. But Pure Sensation looked vulnerable when he lost his 2018 bow at Gulfstream at 2-5, and I’m taking Dubini to upset.

Dubini has one race that makes him a major player – his narrowly beaten second two starts back in last fall’s Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship to Rainbow Heir, who came back to dominate the Gulfstream Turf Sprint with a 106 Beyer. Granted, Dubini was 59-1 that day. But I don’t think that effort was necessarily a fluke because Dubini showed real potential when he won his first four starts.

Connaught Cup

Conquest Panthera was a Weekend Warrior play in the Elusive Quality opening weekend at Belmont and ran well finishing second. I’m going right back to him because he continues to focus on what he does best – extended turf sprints – and he can get early position in a race that doesn’t have a lot of speed.

Forge is the main danger, but I question if he can pair up top performances. All four times Forge earned a triple-digit Beyer, he fell off sharply in his next start, and he’s coming off a 101 Beyer.