Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 18: Picks for Wise Dan, Regret, Rainbow
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
The return of undefeated and untested champion Songbird and the big Stephen Foster Handicap card at Churchill Downs are the major racing events Saturday.
Songbird, who was unable to start in the Kentucky Oaks due to illness, goes in the Grade 2, $200,000 Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita. This will be Songbird’s first start since stretching her perfect record to seven races in the Santa Anita Oaks on April 9.
The Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster tops a card that includes four other graded stakes – the Fleur de Lis and Wise Dan, which are both Grade 2, $200,000 events, and the Matt Winn and Regret, two Grade 3, $100,000 races.
Wise Dan Stakes
The Pizza Man, the winner last year of the Arlington Million and Hollywood Turf Cup (in which he was about five days the best) and a narrowly beaten second in the Shadwell Turf Mile (much to my chagrin), is the name horse here. And if the 2015 version of The Pizza Man shows up Saturday night, he’ll win.
That is not a given, however, because The Pizza Man did not perform like his old self in his one start this year. That was in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, and he finished fifth as the even-money favorite. The troubling aspect to The Pizza Man’s outing at Gulfstream is that he wasn’t any farther off the early pace or wider than usual yet still was a no show. And on top of that, he has been idle for four months since. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pizza Man returned with a solid effort, but I wouldn’t bet on it, especially at a short price.
I’m going with Za Approval, who at age 8 probably isn’t quite as good as he once was but might be good enough if The Pizza Man doesn’t perform to standards. When Za Approval made his seasonal debut in the Dixie Stakes on the Preakness undercard, he caught a turf course softened by all-day rain. Za Approval has never been able to stand up on off turf, so his fade in that race is easily forgiven. He likely still got something out of the outing, though, and he will catch his preferred firm ground this time.
In his last start on firm turf two back, Za Approval crushed an allowance field at Keeneland last fall. Granted, that field wasn’t as tough as the one Za Approval faces Saturday. But he won with such authority that I think a similar effort Saturday could put him right there.
Thatcher Street is dangerous and might have been my pick if I thought his odds would be higher than Za Approval’s. Thatcher Street is a late developer whose last four performances were rock solid.
Regret Stakes
Auntie Joy was beaten less than a length when second to Catch a Glimpse in the Edgewood Stakes most recently. Catch a Glimpse, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall, followed up her Edgewood victory with a score over males in the Penn Mile, making her 7 for 7 on turf. So, I understand if people think Auntie Joy is dropping in class here. But Auntie Joy was 31-1 in the Edgewood and will be a fraction of that price this time, and there are several appealing alternatives.
Wessex is my play. Wessex came out on the short end of a three-way photo in the Hilltop Stakes last time with Gone Away and Family Meeting, who are also in this race. However, the Hilltop was an oddly run race with a pacesetter who ran off though fast fractions due to an equipment problem. Wessex was much closer to that destructive pace than were the two who edged her. Moreover, Wessex was making just the second start of her career and has more room for improvement.
Rainbow Stakes
There’s a lot of pace in this supporting feature at Santa Anita, and the nine-furlong distance is a separator, too. I like Liam the Charmer, who can come from off the pace and won’t have any trouble with the route.
Liam the Charmer was a narrowly beaten second while going 1 1/8 miles in his grass debut two starts back, just the second start of his career off a debut on dirt that he couldn’t have gotten much out of. And last time out, he aired off a two-plus-month layoff, suggesting better things to come.