Weekend Warrior for Saturday, June 13: Picks for Stephen Foster, Poker, Fleur de Lis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
With a thrilling Triple Crown behind us, the second half of the stakes season unofficially begins Saturday with two Grade 1 events on the schedule. The Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap tops a card at Churchill Downs that includes three other graded stakes, the most notable being the Grade 2, $200,000 Fleur de Lis Handicap.
The Grade 1, $400,000 Shoemaker Mile is the feature at Santa Anita, and the supporting feature, the Grade 3, $100,000 Adoration Stakes, is a good one, too. The Adoration features a match-up between two-time champion Beholder and Warren’s Veneda, who was by far the most accomplished older female early this year in California in Beholder’s absence.
Stephen Foster Handicap
I’ve been a big Lea fan since he won an allowance race on turf at Saratoga in the third start of his career. And part of me would like to see him win Saturday night for the help he could provide going forward to a handicap division that could use some help. But the horseplayer in me is skeptical.
Beyond being uncertain how Lea took his long trip to the Dubai World Cup – this will be his first start since his third in that event in March – I’m also a little bothered by the fact that almost all of Lea’s success on dirt has come at Gulfstream Park. Lea did win on the main track at Churchill in 2013, but that was an off-the-turf race in the slop over only three opponents. The point is, Eastern bettors have seen many horses over the years excel at Gulfstream and fail to duplicate that success elsewhere. I’m not saying for certain that Lea is one of those horses. But it is a fact that so far, Lea has not won a significant race on dirt anywhere else.
I’m also not really sold on Commissioner and Hoppertunity, two of Lea’s main opponents. Commissioner is in career form, but his wins in the Pimlico Special and Skip Away in his last two starts were achieved over suspect company. Hoppertunity won the Clark at Churchill last November, but it’s no cinch he’s as sharp now. Hoppertunity hasn’t raced since a distant third in the Santa Anita Handicap, and his win before that was aided by the easiest of unobstructed rail trips.
Noble Bird is my play. I realize Noble Bird is stepping up Saturday, but I really liked his effort last time in a narrow defeat in the Alysheba. Noble Bird lost an extended stretch duel in the Alysheba to favored Protonico. But the pace in the Alysheba was very slow, and Protonico got first run over Noble Bird, a tactical advantage that made the difference. However, that was Noble Bird’s best race yet, confirming the improvement he has shown throughout the season, and he might have another forward step in him. The Alysheba was flattered to some degree when Honor Code, who finished fifth in it, came back with a powerful win in last week’s Met Mile with a 112 Beyer Speed Figure.
Poker Stakes
Il Campione, winner of 8 of 10 starts and a champion at 2 and 3 in his native Chile, makes his U.S. debut here. It is entirely possible that Il Campione, who is now trained by Chad Brown, might just be way too good for this field. But I can’t resist the dramatically improving Ironicus.
Yes, I know that the Dixie that Ironicus won at Pimlico right before American Pharoah won the Preakness was a mess. Horses were strung out about 15 wide into the stretch, and Ironicus was not one of those floated to the parking lot. He actually was never that far removed from the rail. But you should not let Ironicus’s good fortune overshadow the fact that he unleashed an impressive, powerful late kick, one that will win him a lot races.
Fleur de Lis Handicap
Sheer Drama, Gold Medal Dancer, and Tiz Windy all ran okay finishing second, third, and fourth in the La Troienne, but not much better than okay. I prefer Yahilwa against them here. For some unfathomable reason, Yahilwa wound up disputing a strong pace in the duPont Distaff on Preakness Day, and did well to save second. Yahilwa is much more effective when she rates slightly off the pace, as she showed winning the Sixty Sails, and I look for her to return to that approach Saturday night.