Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 9: Picks for Belmont Sprint Championship, Belmont Derby, Delaware Oaks
The Fourth of July is in the rearview mirror, but Saturday at Belmont Park is Stars and Stripes Festival Day, with six graded stakes races led by the Grade 1, $1.25 million Belmont Derby and the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Oaks. There also are stakes-packed cards at Delaware Park, where the main event is the Grade 3, $300,000 Delaware Oaks, and Arlington, which offers four Grade 3 events.
Belmont Sprint Championship
Private Zone has been one of the best sprinters in the country since 2013, but I’m taking a stand against him Saturday. Private Zone was to have made his 2016 debut the day before the Belmont Stakes in the six-furlong True North Stakes but was unable to start due to a marijuana matter involving his trainer. Instead, Private Zone will make his first start since tiring in the Cigar Mile in this longer event going seven furlongs.
Private Zone has a fine record at seven furlongs. But it should be noted that when he won this race last year, he had a virtual uncontested lead, and when he followed with a win in the seven-furlong Forego, he set an early pace that was slower than the one Runhappy set in winning the King’s Bishop one race earlier. Moreover, while Private Zone might well be the speed of the speed here, there is other speed to at least keep him honest early.
I like Marking. Marking finished a distant fourth most recently in the Met Mile, but everyone was soundly beaten in that race after Frosted absolutely freaked. But Marking, who was an uncoupled stablemate of Frosted, ran okay after being sent hard through the second quarter-mile, and I love this cutback to a sprint for him. Marking was very game in finishing second in the Grade 1 Malibu late last year in just his third career start, finishing behind the champion Runhappy, who was winning his sixth straight, and ahead of Lord Nelson, who has won both of his starts since, including the recent Grade 1 Triple Bend.
Belmont Derby
There is reason to question the strength of our 3-year-old turf males, and I believe trainer Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand in this spot with his two European shippers, Deauville and Long Island Sound.
I prefer Deauville, and not just because he might be the better equipped of the two to handle the conditions if a forecast for very wet weather pans out. Deauville was outrun last time out in the Epsom Derby, but he ran a big race two starts back in his 2016 debut, finishing a narrowly beaten second of 12 in the Dante Stakes, a top prep for the Epsom Derby. Deauville was nailed in the Dante by the very highly regarded Wings of Desire, who off that win was sent off as the second choice in the Epsom Derby, finishing fourth.
The Belmont Derby and the Belmont Sprint Championship bookend an all-stakes late pick four Saturday at Belmont, and here are some thoughts on the other two races in the sequence.
The Suburban is the second leg, and while I would use Effinex, I wouldn’t entirely trust him to rebound from his no-show sixth in the Stephen Foster Handicap last time at 3-5. I prefer Noble Bird, who stretches back out after an unsuccessful attempt at the Met Mile and is the controlling speed like he was when he romped in the Pimlico Special two starts back. But I also like the much-improved Brooklyn Handicap winner, Shaman Ghost.
The Belmont Oaks is the third leg of this sequence, and I like a U.S. filly in this one, and it’s not Catch a Glimpse, even though she is 7 for 7 on turf. I like our other streaking filly, Time and Motion, with Ballydoyle being my preferred O’Brien-trained invader.
Delaware Oaks
Kinsley Kisses might be the favorite here off her third in the Black-Eyed Susan, but she had a great pace setup last time at Pimlico, and the pace setup this time with more early speed is not as favorable.
Browse finished a close second as the favorite most recently in the Our Mims, the local prep for this, but I like her to make amends. Browse surprisingly set the pace in the Our Mims, and her pace was extremely quick in comparison to the three other routes on the card. I look for Browse to sit a much better stalking trip this time.