Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 7: Picks for Belmont Derby, Parx Dash, Arlington Handicap

NEW YORK – There is the Grade 3, $300,000 Delaware Oaks at Delaware Park; the Grade 2, $200,000 Great Lady M. at Los Alamitos; the Grade 3, $200,000 Parx Dash at Parx Racing; and the Arlington Million Preview Day program at Arlington. But the biggest doings Saturday will be on Belmont Park’s Stars and Stripes Day card of five graded stakes events, led by the Grade 1, $1.2 million Belmont Derby and the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Oaks.

Belmont Derby

With a sense from afar that this year’s European 3-year-olds are not particularly strong, my focus here is on our sophomore turfers, which I feel is a good group.

Analyze It was freakish in winning his first three starts, but he had no excuse when losing the Pennine Ridge most recently, raising the question of his distance capability. And now he must stretch out an additional furlong to 1 1/4 miles.

Catholic Boy was terrific in coming again to win the Pennine Ridge in his return to turf after taking the worst of it during some race riding in upper stretch. Still, I wonder how much of that win was a function of Analyze It maybe finding the distance too far and dropping that race into Catholic Boy’s lap.

I liked Hawkish in the Penn Mile, and he dominated after a wide sweep to the lead. But as impressive as he was visually, his final time, slower than the Penn Oaks two races earlier, was lacking.

Even though he’s been an admirable hard hitter, I haven’t been My Boy Jack’s biggest fan, and I’m still trying to figure out how he became one of the biggest underlays in recent history when he went off the second betting choice in the Kentucky Derby to Justify. And yet he’s my pick here.

My Boy Jack finished a fine fifth in the Derby after steadying at a crucial point late on the far turn and into the stretch on a Churchill main track that often mimics turf, beating Bravazo and Hofburg, who both subsequently ran well, hitting the board in the Preakness and Belmont, respectively.

Now, My Boy Jack moves back to actual turf, on which he made his bones early in his career, winning the Zuma Beach and turning in an effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf that was much better than it looks on paper considering he was four to six wide around each turn.

Parx Dash

It looked as though Pure Sensation had lost a step after a series of uninspiring efforts last year into this season. But he recaptured his best form most recently when a sharp third in the Jaipur Stakes on the Belmont Stakes card and now moves back to the Parx turf course, his favorite. Pure Sensation is 4 for 4 on that course, including a romp in this race last year with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 110.

Pure Sensation will be tough to handle at a short price, but I’ll try to upset him with Tribalist, who won’t be anywhere near his morning-line odds of 15-1 and would actually be a nice price if he were even close to half that.

Tribalist ships from Santa Anita off a six-month layoff, but that’s okay. He came off a 13-month absence when he ran in the Green Flash Handicap last summer at Del Mar and turned in a remarkable performance. He rushed up inside after being steadied just after the start, took up on the rail into the far turn and again on the far turn, steadied behind horses when he lacked room in upper stretch, and yet still finished fast to get up in time.

And it’s not like Tribalist beat an empty field that day either. Third in the Green Flash was Richard’s Boy, who later missed by a head in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

Arlington Handicap

A superficial glance at Divisidero’s recent past performances might suggest he’s in decline, but look deeper. Two starts back, Divisidero finished a sharp second in the Monmouth Stakes off a layoff of almost eight months to Money Multiplier, who came back to be a good second in last week’s Grade 1 United Nations. Most recently, Divisidero finished a close fourth in the Wise Dan, but that was after being badly shuffled back on the inside on the far turn and angling wide in the stretch.

In my view, Divisidero is a Grade 1 1/2 performer who should make short work of this Grade 3 spot.