Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 4: Picks for Dwyer, Penny Memorial, Belmont Derby
Even if you think big-event race days have some undesirable effects on the game, you have to be impressed with Saturday’s Stars and Stripes Festival at Belmont Park. There are six graded stakes on the card, led by the Grade 1, $1.25 million Belmont Derby and the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Oaks. Enjoy these graded stakes. They are the last ones of the Belmont spring/summer meet.
Other stakes of note Saturday include the Grade 2, $350,000 Los Alamitos Derby and the Grade 3, $200,000 Dr. James Penny Memorial at Parx Racing.
Dwyer Stakes
This undercard stakes at Belmont marks the return of Texas Red, the runaway winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and a top contender for the Kentucky Derby until a foot abscess knocked him out of action. Texas Red is clearly the established class of this field, but he doesn’t have to win.
Beyond the obvious considerations that Texas Red might simply need a race and is merely prepping for much bigger events down the road, the Dwyer is a one-turn mile, and I just don’t think that’s this colt’s best game. When Texas Red got his maiden win at Del Mar last summer in his third career start, it was going two turns. When he took a big step forward in his next start, finishing third to American Pharoah in the FrontRunner Stakes, it was around two turns. And, of course, his emphatic Breeders’ Cup score was going two turns.
But when Texas Red made his first start this year in the seven-furlong San Vicente, he was beaten. Granted, he did just run out of track, but he still lost against much weaker company at 3-5.
I am a big fan of Speightster and was a big fan last year of Blofeld, but I’m not siding with either here. I’m not crazy about the added distance for Speightster at this very early stage of his career, and in retrospect, the horses Blofeld beat last year weren’t all that good.
I like Tommy Macho, who couldn’t have been more impressive in winning an allowance route last time on the Belmont Stakes undercard, crushing a much stronger field than Speightster beat one day earlier and doing so in very fast time. It goes without saying that Tommy Macho is facing tougher company Saturday, but he is 2 for 2 at the Belmont meet and should be a reasonably good price.
Dr. James Penny Memorial
While some might think Coffee Clique has lost a step from her excellent 2014 form, I don’t. Her three losses this year were all functions of unsuitable trips. But though an in-form Coffee Clique with a decent trip would be way too much for this field, she might be in store for yet another unsuitable trip. Coffee Clique is at her best closing. She was too close to the pace in her last two starts, and a lack of speed in this spot might find her too close early once again.
Distorted Beauty is a good alternative play. Distorted Beauty turned in perhaps the two best performances of her career at Belmont in her two starts this year, first scoring in overwhelming fashion and then finishing an excellent third in the Intercontinental. She was shuffled much too far back off a walking pace in the Intercontinental and had a bit of traffic in upper stretch. And yet, much to her credit, she still finished stronger than anyone else. Distorted Beauty is stretching out, but she stretched out to two turns effectively last year.
Belmont Derby
Anyone who saw his powerful finish in his American Turf win two starts back, or the two moves he made into a crawling pace in his Pennine Ridge victory most recently, knows that Divisidero is on the cusp of becoming a very serious horse. But as much as I like and respect Divisidero, I’m going with Bolo.
Unless someone else here surprisingly goes nuts early, Bolo will go right to the lead and will control the pace. And when Bolo is the controlling speed on turf, he is a monster. Just watch the replay of his Eddie Logan score late last year for proof. Bolo had a useful and successful return to turf last time out after an unsuccessful attempt at the Kentucky Derby, and his tactical advantage in combination with the belief that he will be a higher price than Divisidero makes him tough to resist.