Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 30: Picks for Jim Dandy, Alfred Vanderbilt, Regret
Saratoga has four graded stakes races on its card Saturday, but the big race of the day is the Grade 1, $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar, where three-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder again meets last year’s champion 3-year-old filly, Stellar Wind. These two met for the first time in last month’s Vanity Mile, and Beholder defeated Stellar Wind by a decisive 1 1/2 lengths.
At Saratoga, the ostensible feature is the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy, the local prep for the Travers Stakes. But the highest-ranked race on this card is the Grade 1, $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, and the best horse on the card might be top turf male Flintshire in the Grade 2, $250,000 Bowling Green Handicap.
Jim Dandy Stakes
Sunday’s Haskell at Monmouth, which was drawn too late for use in this column, has Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and Preakness winner Exaggerator, but the Jim Dandy has some star power, too. Creator and Destin, just a nose apart when first and second in the Belmont Stakes, will meet again in the Jim Dandy, along with Belmont fourth-place finisher Governor Malibu.
Creator was good to me in the Belmont, which makes it tough for me to go against him Saturday. But the Jim Dandy is a much different race from the Belmont, and not just because it is three furlongs shorter. Thanks to Creator’s rabbit, Gettysburg, there was an honest (for the distance) pace in the Belmont. But there is precious little early speed in the Jim Dandy. That does not help Creator’s deep closing style and is more to Destin’s favor because of his positional early foot.
Speaking of pace, Laoban probably will control it, but I couldn’t bet him. He is still a maiden. He might be the best maiden in America, but he still has not actually won a race. Moreover, Laoban took advantage of one of the most profound track biases seen this year in New York in the Gotham and still couldn’t capitalize, failing to hold off the limited Shagaf.
I like Mohaymen, who has been pointing to a Saratoga run for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, a winner with six of his first eight starters at the meet, ever since his good fourth in the Kentucky Derby. I liked Mohaymen’s effort in the Derby because he was much farther back early than he is accustomed to and there was standing water on the track in spots. In view of Mohaymen’s flat fourth in the Florida Derby in his first start on an off track, it’s fair to wonder if he is at his best on a wet surface.
As noted, Destin will be a forward early factor, but I expect Mohaymen to be involved early, too. I project him pulling a trip much like the one he got in the Holy Bull, which he dominated after laying close to a slow early pace.
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap
There was a powerful dead-rail bias on the main track at Belmont Park on July 9, Stars and Stripes Festival Day, which is noteworthy because that was the day A. P. Indian won the Belmont Sprint Championship. A. P. Indian, my play here, wasn’t smack on the rail in the Belmont Sprint. He was in the No. 3 path down the backstretch, in the No. 2 path on the far turn, and was in the No. 2 path into the stretch before drifting in the run to the wire. But A. P. Indian was closer to the dead rail than any other main-track winner on that card and was much closer to the worst part of the track than narrowly beaten Belmont Sprint runner-up Marking.
In other words, A. P. Indian’s Belmont Sprint win was considerably better than it looks on paper.
Regret Stakes
I dislike using five-horse races like this in the Warrior, but my choices were limited, and I couldn’t use the Hirsch, which is strictly a two-horse affair. At least I do think heavy Regret favorite Stonetastic is vulnerable after stopping at odds-on last time out.
My hope is that Bustin Out can keep Stonetastic honest early and that Sky Gold will come pick up the pieces. Sky Gold is 1 for 1 on dirt for her current trainer, and while she must improve, she now does business for Jorge Navarro, who is winning at a 39 percent clip at Monmouth.