Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 29: Picks for Vanderbilt, Bowling Green, Amsterdam

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – While the richest race this weekend is Sunday’s Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth, Saratoga has another big card Saturday with four graded stakes events.

The Grade 1, $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap is the highest ranked of these four, but the real headliner is the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy, the local steppingstone to next month’s Travers. The Jim Dandy features a rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing.

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Saratoga’s other two stakes are the Grade 2, $250,000 Bowling Green and the Grade 2, $200,000 Amsterdam.

Del Mar also has a Grade 1 event Saturday, the $300,000 Bing Crosby, which marks the seasonal debut of last year’s male sprint champion, Drefong.

Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap

A. P. Indian won this race last summer as well as the Forego, the other big Saratoga sprint stakes for older males. But that was last summer, and I am not convinced that A. P. Indian is as sharp this year as then. He ran fairly well in finishing second in his two outings this year, but he also had no excuse in either race. The two horses who bracketed him in the Maryland Sprint most recently fell off Beyer Speed Figure-wise with losses in their next starts.

I’m also not crazy about the fact that A. P. Indian was reported to have worn front bandages in three of his last four starts, all following his career-best performances of last summer.

Limousine Liberal is the one here for me. Limousine Liberal surprised when he ran A. P. Indian to a nose as the runner-up in the Phoenix Stakes last October, but that was his first start with blinkers, and he has clearly become more effective since adding that equipment. Once a speedball, Limousine Liberal has adopted a stalking style that fits very well in this race, especially with his outside draw, and he comes into this off three straight sprint-stakes victories at Churchill Downs.

This is not a point to be overlooked. So far at this young Saratoga meet, horses with recent races at Churchill have done very well over a Saratoga main track that seems a little different than in years past.

Bowling Green Stakes

Ascend pulled off a major upset when he landed the Manhattan Stakes last time out on the Belmont Stakes card at 27-1, but I do not think his performance was a fluke, and I like him to win right back.

Ascend, who won his prior two starts, including the Henry S. Clark Stakes from far off the pace in his 2017 debut, showed the positional speed to stay close to a slow Manhattan pace and yet, according to DRF Formulator, was still able to produce a fifth and final quarter-mile in a sensational 21.91 seconds to score decisively.

Sadler’s Joy, who checked in third in the Manhattan, also finished powerfully, getting his final quarter, according to Formulator, in a faster 21.63. I believe Sadler’s Joy will like the tight-turned configuration of the inner turf course for the Bowling Green, given his sharp form early this year at Gulfstream. However, he’s a dead closer who does not have the positional foot Ascend has, and there isn’t much speed for him in this race.

Amsterdam Stakes

Coal Front might be very, very good. He was impressive in winning under less-than-ideal circumstances during Belmont Stakes week to make him 2 for 2. But I’m going with Mo Cash.

Despite what the Gulfstream announcer said, the pace Mo Cash set in the Carry Back Stakes most recently was strong compared to the paces in the Princess Rooney and Smile Sprint in the following two races, and he set that pace comfortably before being edged late by the talented Three Rules. I think Mo Cash can control the Amsterdam pace and go wire to wire.

◗ I really wanted to use the Bing Crosby in this week’s Warrior, what with it having an 11-horse field and with Drefong coming off a layoff of almost nine months. But it’s a complicated race. Roy H got a huge 111 Beyer in winning the True North last time, though that was a bias-aided win on a major dead-rail day. And Ransom the Moon got a big number in finishing second in the San Carlos most recently, but he was perfectly set up thanks to his “rabbit.” I’ve been a fan of Drefong from the start, and in the end, I couldn’t go against him.