Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 25: Picks for Sanford, San Diego, Diana
The first Saturday of the Saratoga meet features a stakes doubleheader consisting of the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana and the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford. There also are two stakes on Del Mar’s card – the Grade 2, $200,000 San Diego Handicap and the $200,000 Fleet Treat Stakes.
Sanford Stakes
I usually don’t feature early-season stakes for 2-year-olds such as this because there is little form in these races. And what form there is can’t be relied on too heavily since 2-year-olds can improve wildly from one start to the next. But this race is an exception because one in here caught my eye in his last start.
First, let’s take a quick look at some of the main players, from the rail out.
Awesome Slew won his debut at Monmouth nicely, although he did benefit from a slow start by the 3-5 runner up. Magna Light romped in his first start at Belmont, but the quality of that form is questionable as that was an off-the-turf race in the slop.
He’s Comin in Hot made it two straight with a decisive score in the Bashford Manor, an outing that made him not only the lone member of this field to have won at this six-furlong distance but also the only member of this field to have even started in a six-furlong race. However, He’s Comin in Hot’s Beyer Speed Figures haven’t improved an inch over his last three starts, and that’s troubling.
I bet Paynes Prairie at 16-1 in the Tremont Stakes two starts back, saw him get nailed late, and then watched him romp at 2-5 last time out. There isn’t much wrong with him, nor with Cocked and Loaded, who improved his record to 2 for 2 when he got up in the Tremont.
Percolator’s debut score was good, and it was flattered when the runner-up came back to win his next start with a 75 Beyer. He’s dangerous, but I’m less bullish on Uncle Vinny, who was a disappointment when sixth of seven in the Tremont as the even-money favorite and has been sluggish early in both of his starts.
I skipped over Twirling Cinnamon because he’s my pick, and I wanted to talk more about him. Twirling Cinnamon won his recent debut at Churchill Downs by only a nose, but it’s worth checking the replay to actually see how well he ran. Twirling Cinnamon broke smoothly, was allowed to settle, and was full of run on the far turn but was hard held to remain racing slightly off the pace between horses. He wound up being caught in traffic from midway on the far turn to upper stretch, but once he got clear, he surged to nail another first-time starter who was hammered down to 7-5.
Twirling Cinnamon showed a lot of professionalism in that debut, and he’s a candidate to improve significantly, perhaps more so than others here.
San Diego Handicap
Depending on how aggressive Appealing Tale is early, Bayern might wind up the controlling speed, and that might enable the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner to remember who he was. But after dreadful performances in his first two starts this year, I can’t endorse him.
Hoppertunity most recently ran his best race in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita since his win in the Clark Handicap last fall, and I prefer him. Hoppertunity raced about four wide on the far turn and was five to six wide into the stretch of the Gold Cup and yet missed by just a nose to Hard Aces, who saved much more ground. And as well as Hoppertunity ran in the 10-furlong Gold Cup, he might be even better at this shorter distance.
Diana Stakes
Tepin is in raging form right now even though she has benefitted from slow-paced races, Hard Not to Like ran well in winning the Gamely last time, and the venerable Stephanie’s Kitten might rebound from a dud in her last because she has done that before. But this is a good spot for a new face, and that new face is My Miss Sophia.
When an established dirt horse in sour form moves to a new surface late in her career, it often is an indication of desperation. That was My Miss Sophia’s profile when she made her turf debut most recently. But instead of floundering, My Miss Sophia was sensational, scoring wire to wire, and can do the same again Saturday.