Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 20, 2019: Picks for San Clemente, Haskell Invitational, Monmouth Cup

Saturday promises to be an unusual midsummer’s day of Thoroughbred racing, what with Saratoga heading a list of tracks that have already canceled due to a weather forecast of extreme heat. But racing is still on at Monmouth Park, where it is Haskell Day. And that Grade 1, $1 million event tops a card that includes four Grade 3 stakes, most notably the $200,000 Monmouth Cup and the $150,000 Molly Pitcher, which lured the top-class Midnight Bisou.

Del Mar also has a multistakes program on Saturday. The San Clemente and the San Diego – two Grade 2, $200,000 races – are the co-features, with the $85,000 Daisycutter a supporting stakes.

Notably, the San Diego, led by the highly talented Catalina Cruiser, went with a field of only six (the Haskell went with seven) and will be run as the fourth race on the Del Mar card. Presumably, this is in the interest of slotting bigger fields late on race cards to juice late multirace exotic wagers.

Look, I am a huge fan of multirace exotic wagers. But the policy of running short-field stakes early in the day, especially on Saturdays, is one I feel insults racing tradition and devalues the sporting aspect of the game.

And in fairness, Del Mar is not alone here. After drawing a field of only five, the New York Racing Association was going to run the Coaching Club American Oaks as the third race at Saratoga on Saturday. That’s harsh treatment for America’s only true classic race for females.

San Clemente Stakes

The San Clemente gets top billing because it found a way to lure a good-sized field – 10 were entered – and promises what these days would be an unusual pace scenario, especially for a turf route.

Simply put, there is a ton of early speed in this San Clemente. From the rail out, Keeper Ofthe Stars, Seranitsa, Mucho Unusual, Devils Dance, Harmless, and Kalliniki all want to be on, or right with, the early lead, especially Devils Dance and Harmless, who both possess turf-sprint speed. And Stillwater Cove, whose two performances this year were iffy at best, would also figure to want to be close early as she stretches out to two turns.

Over Emphasize and Maxim Rate are the two here who figure to most benefit from the projected pace scenario. Over Emphasize has improved dramatically since being switched to turf three starts ago, showing good closing kicks each time, and finished third in the Honeymoon Stakes most recently after steadying in upper stretch.

Maxim Rate won the Senorita Stakes two starts back and was nosed in the Providencia three back after rallying from well off the pace but finished fifth of seven in the Honeymoon as the favorite. Yet despite that superficially disappointing Honeymoon effort, I like Maxim Rate.

The Honeymoon did not set up well for Maxim Rate. A deliberate early pace found her closer to the early lead than is really best for her, and she was also hung three wide around both turns while Over Emphasize saved all the ground. And Maxim Rate also steadied briefly in upper stretch.

This spot sets up much better for Maxim Rate. Her draw near the outside, in combination with all the other speed, figures to make her drop out of the back early and deep close, an approach in this race that can be a winning one.

Haskell Invitational

King for a Day sprung an upset when he took a one-length decision from the 1-20 Kentucky Derby first-place finisher, Maximum Security, in last month’s Pegasus Stakes, but his effort was no fluke. King for a Day did all the dirty work, keeping Maximum Security honest up front, and yet still proved best and is now 3 for 3 going long on fast dirt.

I’m going with King for a Day to win right back. If anything, he can pull a more favorable trip Saturday, stalking from close range as others like Joevia, Bethlehem Road, and Spun to Run keep Maximum Security occupied early.

Monmouth Cup

Coal Front, a winner of 7 of 10 career starts, is talented, but he also is a complete unknown at the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race, which makes him a dicey favorite.

I’ll take a shot with Lemonade Thursday. Lemonade Thursday might be jumping in class, but he’s doing so off a blowout score over the track in his 4-year-old bow that was by far his best performance to date.