The Independence Day weekend kicks off Saturday with a busy national stakes schedule topped by the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park and the Summit of Speed program at Gulfstream Park. The Princess Rooney and Smile Sprint handicaps, Grade 2 events worth $250,000 each, head the Summit of Speed card, which, unfortunately, stands a good chance of being affected by thunderstorms. Mother Goose Rachel’s Valentina is a nice filly. She won the Grade 1 Spinaway in just the second start of her career and has since finished second in two other Grade 1 events. However, as a daughter of the wildly popular (and wildly talented) Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, Rachel’s Valentina will be an underlay every time she starts. That is her burden and is a big reason why people like me will look for ways to beat her – not because we’re haters but because she never offers value. Of course, there are other reasons to go against Rachel’s Valentina on Saturday: Her weary sixth in the Kentucky Oaks last time out was not a strong effort. And even her second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies three starts back is open to scrutiny because she was not in Songbird’s league that day (who is?) and she finished only a little more than a length in front of the limited Dothraki Queen. Before siding with Off the Tracks, I took long looks at Lewis Bay and Lightstream. Lewis Bay hasn’t run a bad race yet, but I don’t trust the 91 Beyer Speed Figure she got for finishing third in the Kentucky Oaks. Look at the past performances of Mo d’Amour, who is also in this race. She got a 90 Beyer for finishing fifth in the Oaks, and it sticks out like a sore thumb in comparison to the mid-70s Beyers that surround it and which were career bests for her. :: Bet Belmont Park with DRF Bets. Get a $150 cash bonus, plus an extra $50 bonus for betting on the first day! Find out more today As for Lightstream, she has won all three of her starts and will love going back to dirt from turf. But she is meeting much tougher company Saturday. The concern I have with Off the Tracks is that she is running back only three weeks after finishing second in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard. But her Acorn effort was so good that I’m overlooking what, for the Todd Pletcher barn especially, is a quick turnaround. Off the Tracks had significant traffic trouble from late on the far turn to midstretch in the Acorn, costing her critical momentum and allowing Acorn winner Carina Mia to get the jump on her. Now, no one knows if Off the Tracks would have beaten Carina Mia if she didn’t have traffic trouble. But what I do know is that Off the Tracks finished strongly once clear to be beaten only a little more than a length, and she finished ahead of Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia and Black-Eyed Susan winner Go Maggie Go. Bashford Manor There is little form to go on here since only one of the nine entered has raced more than once, and he’s the only maiden in the field, but I still found this to be a fascinating race. I was originally attracted to Recruiting Ready, who sold as a yearling for a price that was a staggering 22 times higher than the stud fee of his sire, usually a sign of a runner. Sure enough, Recruiting Ready easily scored by more than 10 lengths in his debut at Pimlico after being hammered down to 3-5. Recruiting Ready will be tough, but I’m going with U S Officer. U S Officer was also an odds-on winner of his debut, with his win coming at Lone Star Park. His was a visually impressive effort, as he drew away strongly late after conceding the early lead. But what I like most about U S Officer is that four of the seven horses he beat in his debut have run back, and all four of them earned higher Beyers in those next starts. Queen’s Plate Thanks to an early draw, we can have a true Weekend Warrior this week and include Sunday’s Queen’s Plate. As always, this is a great betting race, and I like All On Red. All On Red won a strongly run maiden race at Aqueduct two starts back in his second career start, was a narrowly beaten second in his Woodbine debut most recently after doing the dirty work in a pace-pressing trip, and now meets Canadian-breds for the first time.