Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 18: Picks for Delaware Handicap, Eddie Read, Hockessin
Delaware Park, Del Mar, and Indiana Grand have the stakes spotlight Saturday. Delaware has the richest race of the weekend in the Grade 1, $750,000 Delaware Handicap.
This is the first Saturday of the Del Mar meet, and that is the site of the weekend’s other Grade 1 event, the $400,000 Eddie Read.
Indiana Grand has a stakes-packed card led by the Grade 2, $500,000 Indiana Derby.
Delaware Handicap
By virtue of their one-two finish in last month’s Fleur de Lis Handicap, Frivolous and Sheer Drama are the marquee horses in this Del Cap. And aside from being in good form, they might also hold a significant tactical edge. Frivolous and Sheer Drama are both capable of performing effectively using a with-the-pace approach. There is no other real speed in this race, and Frivolous and Sheer Drama might just control very ordinary fractions.
Nevertheless, I’m against both Saturday. Frivolous was good to me in a multirace-exotics sense when she won the Fleur de Lis at a ridiculously overlaid 32-1. But Frivolous will be one-tenth of that price this time – maybe even shorter – and the strong sense is that last time was the time to have her.
Sheer Drama has been rating a little farther off the pace lately than she has for most of her career, but I’m skeptical that that will help her stretch out to 1 1/4 miles Saturday. I don’t think Sheer Drama really wants any part of 10 furlongs. At all.
I like Rosalind. Most people don’t think of Rosalind as a dirt filly because when she was a dead-heat winner of the Grade 1 Ashland, it was when Keeneland had Polytrack, and when she won the Sheepshead Bay two starts back, it was on turf. Her soundly beaten fourth most recently in the Ogden Phipps didn’t, on the surface, do much to advance her case as a dirt performer.
However, Rosalind was not only in with much better – Wedding Toast, who walloped champion Untapable in the Phipps, is virtually unbeatable in New York – but her late kick was also compromised by a very slow early pace. So, I wouldn’t read Rosalind’s Phipps performance as an indication that she’s ineffective on dirt, not when she finished third on dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and in the Pocahontas to Untapable at 2.
Unlike others in this race, the stretch-out to 1 1/4 miles will suit Rosalind nicely. After all, her Sheepshead Bay win came going 11 furlongs. Rosalind’s expected affinity for the distance will mitigate any difficulty she might encounter from a slow pace.
Eddie Read Stakes
Big Cazanova has never won on turf, and I usually wouldn’t endorse such a horse in a Grade 1 grass stakes, especially one who some think might be a rabbit for uncoupled barnmate Finnegans Wake. Despite that, Big Cazanova is still worth a play.
Big Cazanova has done some hard pace running against better on dirt lately, and the softer fractions he might see here, even with Midnight Storm in the lineup, will help him. And though he’s winless on turf, he did hit the board in all three of his turf starts. Moreover, Big Cazanova’s 3-for-3 record on synthetics suggests that he should be effective on turf.
Finnegans Wake is moving back to what is by far his best surface. But this will be his third start in six weeks, and I wonder if he might not want a less-active schedule.
Hockessin Stakes
I have to stick with Bourbon Courage in this undercard stakes at Delaware. I liked Bourbon Courage a lot in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and he might have been best, finishing like a wild horse to be a close fourth at 21-1. After that, Bourbon Courage was compromised by a strong inside-speed bias when third in the Cigar Mile and was on a dead rail much of the way in the subsequent General George. I don’t have an excuse for Bourbon Courage’s dull effort in his last start, but he now goes for trainer Graham Motion, and that’s good with me.
Fast Anna should improve while getting back to dirt, and Stallwalkin’ Dude is solid. But when right, Bourbon Courage is better than both.