Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 16: Picks for Indiana Derby, Yellow Ribbon, Kent Stakes

With graded stakes across the country Saturday, the Weekend Warrior plans to fire away from coast to coast and even in the Midwest. So, without further ado, let’s get to some handicapping, starting, in order of preference, with the Indiana Derby, continuing with the Yellow Ribbon from Del Mar, and finishing with the Kent Stakes from Delaware Park.

Indiana Derby

Cherry Wine, the Preakness runner-up who finished seventh in the Belmont, is the 5-2 favorite for the Indiana Derby, a 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 race on the main track. But being a deep closer, I will play against him. Such types are often vulnerable chalks, being more dependent on pace and trip than horses with tactical speed.

One horse who is not lacking speed is Cupid, the Rebel Stakes winner and 3-1 second choice. He is quick and classy when on his game.

What Cupid lacks is quality current form. After winning the Rebel, he faded to 10th in the Arkansas Derby – after which he underwent corrective surgery for a breathing problem – and then returned with a distant fifth in the Easy Goer Stakes on the Belmont Stakes card. Both races were awful.

However, they also came with excuses. The pace was brutally fast in the Arkansas Derby, and if he couldn’t get his air, it was no wonder that he tired the way he did. Then, in the Easy Goer Stakes, he blew the start, and as front-runners often do when they begin poorly, he grew rank when eager to catch up.

Following two such poor races, one could have understood if trainer Bob Baffert chose to regroup with him and maybe start from scratch with him later in the year. But he has instead kept the faith, encouraged by his workouts and putting him on a FedEx flight from California to ship to Indiana and chase the Indiana Derby’s $500,000 purse. That confidence inspires me, along with this horse’s natural talent.

Although his shaky form adds an element of uncertainty, other leading contenders in the field also have drawbacks. Cherry Wine’s fast-track performances in stakes have not matched his second over a sloppy track in a Preakness that had a pace meltdown. The Player is untested around two turns, much less against stakes horses. And Star Hill has a history of flattening out late, particularly in routes.

Consider all that, and Cupid seems like the probable winner.

Yellow Ribbon

Looking out west to Del Mar, 12-1 shot Prize Exhibit looms an overlay in the Yellow Ribbon while coming off a deceptively good race that may not receive the proper respect by bettors.

That easy-to-overlook race was the Grade 1 Just a Game at Belmont on June 11, when Prize Exhibit ran sixth of 13. So, what made it sneaky good? Racing against one of the best top-to-bottom fields of turf females this year, she was only three-quarters of a length away from third-place Mrs McDougal in a tightly grouped finish.

The race earned her a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, among the best recent numbers in the Yellow Ribbon field, despite her having a less-than-perfect trip. In traffic for much of the Just a Game, she didn’t get clear sailing until the stretch, at which point she was 11th with too much ground to make up.

Now she makes the third start of her form cycle and returns to a Del Mar turf course that is one of her preferred courses. Besides winning the San Clemente at Del Mar last summer, she ran third in the Del Mar Oaks and second in this race last summer when just a 3-year-old.

Kent Stakes

In a race in which American Patriot owns a flashy 89 Beyer and Keystoneforvictory sports a recent stakes win, the price should be palatable on Converge, a horse I view as the class on the grass in the Kent Stakes.

The leading money earner and lone graded stakes winner in the field, he catches what appears to be one of the softer graded stakes for 3-year-old turf males this year. And that should come as a relief after racing in some rather salty graded stakes since winning the Grade 3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream in February.

Adding to his appeal is that his trainer, Chad Brown, is North America’s leading trainer by turf earnings and stakes wins on the grass. Brown obviously knows how to prep a horse to win a race like this and how to find the right spot.