Weekend Warrior for Saturday, July 1: Picks for Princess Rooney, Smile Sprint, Mother Goose
The long Independence Day weekend kicks off Saturday with an eclectic stakes schedule that includes the Grade 1, $300,000 United Nations at Monmouth; the popular Summit of Speed card at Gulfstream, led by the Grade 2, $250,000 Princess Rooney and the Grade 3, $250,000 Smile Sprint; a graded-stakes doubleheader at Santa Anita topped by the Grade 2, $250,000 San Carlos; and the Grade 2, $250,000 Mother Goose at Belmont.
Princess Rooney Stakes
Dearest had a large lead in midstretch of the Inside Information Stakes in her most recent appearance but was nailed late by Distinta and Wheatfield and had to settle for third. Yet even though Dearest is facing Distinta and Wheatfield again Saturday at the same seven-furlong distance as the Inside Information, I’m going with her to close the deal this time. Why? Dearest gets a better pace setup.
Dearest contested a pace in the Inside Information that was pretty quick on a day when the Gulfstream Park main track wasn’t conducive to especially fast times. In fact, the Inside Information pace was so destructive that the two opponents who were most involved early with Dearest wound up finishing seventh of eight, beaten 16 1/2 lengths, and last, beaten almost 34 lengths. Under the circumstances, Dearest did well to almost win the Inside Information and finish as close as she did.
This time, barring someone else in the Princess Rooney field going nuts early and showing uncharacteristic zip, Dearest will be the controlling speed and won’t be as pressured in the initial stages. I expect that will be all she needs because the seven furlongs is not an issue. She won her previous two starts at the distance, including the Azalea Stakes last summer.
As for some others in this Princess Rooney, Lightstream might look best on paper. She won two graded stakes and finished a close second in the Grade 1 Test last year, all at this distance. She’s primed for a peak performance off an improved third in the Bed o’ Roses in her second start this year. Lightstream is a dead closer, however, and like Distinta and Wheatfield, she is just not well set up pace-wise. Curlin’s Approval, beaten at odds-on in her last two, including a no-excuse fifth in the Inside Information, seems to have lost the positional speed she once had.
Smile Sprint Stakes
Delta Bluesman scored emphatically in this race last year over the classy Limousine Liberal, but he’s a play-against for me as he is winless in five starts this year and seems significantly removed from his best 2016 form. I’m also leaning against Imperial Hint, a most impressive winner of his last three starts, including the Grade 3 General George most recently, all with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, because I question how his fine Mid-Atlantic form will play at Gulfstream.
I like Awesome Banner, who came up with a huge effort at 31-1 in the Maryland Sprint Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Awesome Banner moved up to challenge on the far turn while four wide yet fought on to finish third, beaten just a half-length. Moreover, he battled it out with Whitmore, who was winning his fifth straight race and third straight stakes that day, as well as A. P. Indian, who won two Grade 1 races last summer at Saratoga. Now, Awesome Banner returns to Gulfstream, where he is 6 for 11.
Mother Goose Stakes
Lockdown and Vexatious enter off third- and fourth-place finishes in the Kentucky Oaks, but the Oaks was a race that fell apart in the slop, so I’m skeptical of the career-best Beyers they earned. I’ll take a flier on Moana.
Moana is the slowest horse in this race Beyer-wise, but I thought she ran quite well when fifth last time in the Black-Eyed Susan. The Black-Eyed Susan was also run in the slop, and the pace completely disintegrated. The first four finishers came from ninth, eighth, 11th, and 10th. Moana was a close third early to that enervating pace, and she wound up finishing much better than anyone else who was involved in the early running.
The Black-Eyed Susan was only Moana’s third career start, so she has every right to improve, and I think she might improve significantly in a Mother Goose that projects to have a deliberate pace.