Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 9: Picks for Sham, Turf Dash, Fort Lauderdale
The much-anticipated return of 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome in the Grade 2, $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita tops Saturday’s action, even if it is likely to occur in the rain and mud. But there is plenty more going on. The Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes is the supporting feature at Santa Anita, and there are three graded stakes at Gulfstream – the Grade 2, $200,000 Fort Lauderdale; the Grade 3, $150,000 Hal’s Hope; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Marshua’s River.
Sham Stakes
Of the nine entered in this main-track event, four – Dressed in Hermes, Collected, Rare Candy, and I’malreadythere – have been either confirmed turf performers or have done their most competitive racing on grass. Now, a forecast of rain Saturday is expected to make for a wet track, and maybe a wet track will prove to be an equalizer. But I’m not banking on it.
Although I am well aware that Dressed in Hermes had a huge work on dirt at Keeneland before the Breeders’ Cup, taking turf horses in dirt races is poor policy over time. Moreover, as a believer in turf feet, ability on grass and on wet tracks are actually mutually exclusive. Turf horses tend to have wide, flat feet. Mud lovers tend to have small, cuppy feet that allow them to punch to the bottom of a wet surface.
Pace, always a critical factor, is another especially interesting component to this race. Collected showed early foot in his first two starts, but those starts were on turf, and speed on turf isn’t quite the same as speed on dirt. Found Money showed speed earlier in his career. But with the way he relaxed early going long in his last two starts, an approach that led to his victory in the King Glorious most recently, I doubt his connections would change tactics again. If you discount those two, there isn’t much speed at all in this spot.
That’s why I’m going with Laoban, even if he is the only maiden in this field. Laoban showed little in his debut going two turns at Del Mar but improved sharply with blinkers on. Yes, Laoban was caught late in that maiden route by Let’s Meet in Rio, who also is back in the Sham, and is now first-time Lasix. However, the pace Laoban contested at Los Alamitos of 23.17 and 46.31 seconds was the fastest route pace of that day by far. The half-mile splits of the three other routes on that card were 48.82, 48.23, and 48.28. Beyond being the potential controlling speed, it also doesn’t hurt that Laoban is by Uncle Mo and from a Speightstown mare, giving him as fine a wet-track pedigree as any horse on the planet.
Turf Dash
This is the feature at Tampa Bay Downs, where rain also is possible, and I’m against the two morning-line favorites Power Alert and Night Officer. Power Alert was fortunate to win his first two U.S. starts, as runner-up Amelia’s Wild Ride was best in both of those races, and if it does indeed rain, Power Alert is known to dislike wet turf. As for Night Officer, you have to go back 18 starts to May 2013 for the last time he actually finished first.
Beantown Saint is my play. If you throw out his start in the Quick Call last summer, when he was involved in the most insane of early paces, Beantown Saint would be 4 for 5 in turf sprints. He completed his 2015 campaign in career form, he handles off turf, he’s versatile enough to stalk and pounce, and he has more upside than anyone else in this field.
Fort Lauderdale Stakes
The official course condition of “firm” for the Tropical Turf Handicap is a joke. There already was standing water on Gulfstream Park West’s turf course two races earlier that day in the My Charmer, and a monsoon continued right through the Tropical Turf.
This is noted because you might not be inclined to make an excuse for All Included as the beaten favorite in the Tropical Turf if you didn’t know that he took all the kickback early from the front-runners. I’m inclined to give All Included another chance under less extreme conditions, knowing he can win off his third in the Bernard Baruch last summer.