Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 7: Picks for Mucho Macho Man, San Gabriel, Sham

Santa Anita offers a graded-stakes triple-header Saturday topped by the Grade 2, $200,000 San Gabriel, but the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham is of interest because it’s a Kentucky Derby points race. There are four stakes on the card at Gulfstream, each worth $100,000, led by the Grade 3 Old Hat and Grade 3 Dania Beach.

Weather could be a factor at Gulfstream, with thunderstorms in the forecast. There is also a chance of morning rain at Santa Anita.

Mucho Macho Man Stakes

This is one of the other stakes at Gulfstream, and it’s a tricky one. The first three finishers in last month’s Buffalo Man Stakes – Sonic Mule, Talk Logistics, and Recruiting Ready – are all back Saturday. Sonic Mule got a break on the lead that day when Recruiting Ready’s exceptional speed was not used, and Talk Logistics ran okay to rally and split those two in his first start in five months. But I don’t really trust this trio since the Buffalo Man was a slow race with a winning Beyer Speed Figure of only 77.

Sweetontheladies, a front-runner in his first three starts, came from way back to win the Juvenile Sprint at Gulfstream Park West most recently, but with the benefit of a tremendous pace setup. Even Thunder won stakes in his last two starts, but he was also perfectly set up pace-wise in those scores.

Cavil and Skyler’s Scramjet come into this off relatively quick maidens wins at Aqueduct. However, Cavil’s win came in an off-the-turf race in which he was not a main-track-only entrant, and Skyler’s Scramjet’s victory was a surprise as he had zero parimutuel support and went off at 19-1.

It is unlike me to take a horse coming off a win in a four-horse race, especially a four-horse race in which two of his opponents, including the 1-5 favorite, stumbled at the start. But that is what I’m doing here with Hemsworth, who capitalized on just such a situation last time out in winning the Nashua Stakes.

Hemsworth inherited the early lead in the Nashua after the rough start and went on to win by a city block to not only notch his first stakes win but also his first victory of any sort. Yet as much of a gift as the Nashua was for Hemsworth, there are reasons to think he might also be a good, improving colt.

Hemsworth showed potential while finishing a troubled fourth in his debut three starts back in arguably the hottest 2-year-old maiden race of the Saratoga meet. That race, won by subsequent Futurity Stakes winner Theory, produced four next-out winners. And in the Nashua, Hemsworth ran fast enough late after walking early to earn a Beyer of 83 that fits well in this spot. He also showed big improvement that day with Lasix, and if Gulfstream’s main track does come up wet, Hemsworth should be at home with a pedigree that shouts wet-track proficiency.

San Gabriel Stakes

Ring Weekend is without question the best horse here. He won the Bernard Baruch and Seabiscuit in his last two starts at this Grade 2 stakes level. But even though Ring Weekend is 2 for 3 at Saturday’s nine-furlong distance, those wins came over weak company. I wonder if Ring Weekend might be better at a distance shorter than this.

I’m going with Flamboyant. Flamboyant won this race last year in addition to the subsequent San Marcos, and I like the cutback to nine furlongs for him. The last time Flamboyant went nine furlongs, he was a narrowly beaten third in the Eddie Read behind Midnight Storm and Ashleyluvssugar, and a repeat of that effort might be good enough.

Sham Stakes

The fact that Gormley benefitted from an easy, uncontested lead when he won the FrontRunner Stakes makes him a short-priced horse worth playing against here. American Anthem, a popular winner of his debut, and Big Hit are the logical alternatives, and I’ll try Big Hit since he will be the bigger price.

Big Hit had early trouble when he lost to Gormley in his debut and set too quick a pace in his second start, but he put it all together last time with a decisive maiden win, walloping Little Juanito, whom American Anthem barely beat in his maiden win.