Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 28: Picks for Pegasus World Cup, W.L. McKnight, Gulfstream Turf Sprint
The brand-new Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park overshadows everything else on the stakes front Saturday, and not just because it is the world’s richest Thoroughbred race with a purse of $12 million. This inaugural Pegasus also features a rematch between Arrogate and Horse of the Year California Chrome, the one-two finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November, and marks the final start of California Chrome’s stellar career.
Pegasus World Cup
I never had any intention of including this race in the Warrior because Arrogate and California Chrome tower over the 10 others entered in ways words fail to describe. But then the Pegasus was drawn on Monday, California Chrome pulled the No. 12 hole, Arrogate drew the rail, and this event, for me, anyway, took on an entirely different look.
With the very short run to the first turn on the main track at Gulfstream in 1 1/8-mile races like this, it is difficult to overstate how much of a disadvantage it is to draw an outside post position. Since the rebuilt Gulfstream opened in early 2006, the only horse to win going nine furlongs there from post 12 was Big Brown in the 2008 Florida Derby.
Now, that comes from a sampling of only 18 starters. But there have been 223 horses to break from posts 9 through 14 at the same distance over the same period, and only 10 of them won, roughly one-third of the success rate of posts 1 and 3 over the same time frame. And at the current Gulfstream meet, posts 8 through 14 going two turns on the main track are 0 for 25.
As quick as he is, California Chrome is still at high risk of losing more ground on the first turn than even he might be able to overcome. And if California Chrome tries to clear by the point of the first turn, he might pay a price by going too fast for his own good. This is not to say that California Chrome can’t win. His class is undeniable. But I can’t take a short price on a horse even as accomplished as California Chrome who is starting at the sort of disadvantage he’s facing.
Arrogate’s draw is obviously much better, but it is not ideal. From what he has shown so far, I’m not sure Arrogate has as much speed as some think. He inherited the lead on the first turn in the Travers when everyone went wide, his outings before that were slow-paced affairs, and he was fifth early in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind a moderate pace.
Look, Arrogate is an absolute monster. But he must send early Saturday like he never has before, or he could be shuffled back severely into the first turn, putting him in an untenable position.
I’m taking a shot with Neolithic. I realize Neolithic is moving up miles in class, but he clearly likes Gulfstream, as evidenced by his huge win over the track most recently, and he’s lightly raced, meaning he still has lots of room for a big step forward. Most importantly, Neolithic has the speed to be perfectly placed from the start from the No. 3 hole, an ideal post.
William L. McKnight Handicap
Mr Maybe looked like he might become a Grade 1 turf performer after his most impressive victory in the 2015 Red Smith in only his second start for trainer Chad Brown. Things haven’t panned out that way for Mr Maybe, but he’s still plenty good enough to win this race and is my play.
Mr Maybe was compromised by a slow pace when fourth last time in the Knickerbocker going a distance well short of his best. He now suitably stretches out to an extended distance, one close to the trip at which he dominated the John’s Call last summer at Saratoga.
Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint
Mongolian Saturday, the upset winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, finished ninth in his Breeders’ Cup defense last November. However, Mongolian Saturday was totally unsuited to Santa Anita’s downhill course, and I’m betting on a winning return.
In his last try in a more conventional turf sprint like this two starts back, Mongolian Saturday won the Woodford at Keeneland over a salty field. Mongolian Saturday does come into this off a layoff of nearly three months, but that’s not an issue. He won the Woodford off a three-month break.