Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 23: Picks for Santa Monica, Pasco, Wayward Lass
It’s quiet on the stakes front Saturday, with the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Monica at Santa Anita the only graded event on the schedule.
Santa Monica Stakes
Some will say that Ben’s Duchess needed the race when fourth most recently in the La Brea off a nearly three-month layoff, will now return to the form that enabled her to win the L.A. Woman Stakes going away two starts back, and therefore will win this race. Maybe, but I’m not betting on it. Ben’s Duchess received a setup that she could only have dreamed of when she won the five-horse L.A. Woman, rallying into an insane four-way speed battle. Ben’s Duchess will not get that kind of ideal setup this time. And when she hasn’t received great setups in her other stakes attempts, her performances haven’t been that special.
To varying degrees, the betting public might view Room for Me, Finest City, Prize Exhibit, and Living The Life as alternatives. I’m not as bullish. Room for Me is in good form. She chased champion female sprinter La Verdad last time in the Interborough, was a decisive winner of the Garland of Roses two starts back, and was an okay seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint three back after being hopelessly out of it early. However, I have doubts that Room for Me is as effective at this level going Saturday’s seven-furlong distance as she is going shorter.
I took a long look at Finest City but couldn’t get past the fact that her performances at Del Mar were dramatically better than her efforts elsewhere.
As for Prize Exhibit and Living The Life, both have Beyer Speed Figures that make them competitive. But Prize Exhibit is a turf specialist with zero dirt form, and Living The Life is a synthetic-track specialist whose dirt form is lacking.
I’m giving Tara’s Tango one more chance. I thought enough of Tara’s Tango last fall to take her against I’m a Chatterbox in the Cotillion, but she never moved a muscle that day, finishing a distant 10th. Tara’s Tango returned late last month in the Kalookan Queen, and on paper, her fourth-place finish after a slow start behind two opponents who also are back in this spot wasn’t much better. But Tara’s Tango did show signs of life with a very good gallop-out past the finish.
I keep going back to Tara’s Tango’s near miss in the Summertime Oaks, where she gave Stellar Wind, the champion 3-year-old filly, everything she could handle. I doubt her astute connections would persevere with her if they didn’t think she had more good races to give. And with a little more distance in her second start off a layoff, Tara’s Tango might be primed for a return to top form.
Pasco Stakes
Epic Journey and Hand of Power look like the right ones here. Epic Journey comes off a solid maiden victory over the track after pressing a strong early pace and was only beaten a length when third in his debut three starts back to Uncle Walter, third in last week’s Lecomte Stakes. Yet despite Epic Journey’s appealing profile, I prefer Hand of Power.
Hand of Power showed little on turf in his first two starts but improved sharply on dirt at Churchill Downs in his third and most recent outing. After stalking the pace from the outside, Hand of Power took over in upper stretch and powerfully drew off, leaving 10 opponents strung out behind him. This is aggressive race placement in his first start since November, and I like his cutback from a mile to seven furlongs more than Epic Journey’s stretch-out from six furlongs.
Wayward Lass Stakes
Tiger Moth will take an inordinate amount of money here off her romp at 1-5 at Gulfstream and for being trained by Todd Pletcher. But that was a weak first-level allowance field that Tiger Moth beat last time, and she’s facing much tougher company Saturday.
I’m going with Savings Account. She might not have liked slop when the beaten favorite most recently and was up against the great Beholder and Grade 1 winner My Sweet Addiction when a distant third in the Zenyatta Stakes two back. But Savings Account can win this off either her allowance victory at Del Mar or her second at Monmouth last summer.