Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 21: Picks for Louisiana Stakes, Lecomte, Gasparilla

Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds is that track’s biggest of the year so far, with six stakes up for grabs, led by the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, a Kentucky Derby qualifying race. Elsewhere, Santa Anita has the highest-graded event of the day in the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Monica, and it’s Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream Park, with five stakes for Florida-breds.

Louisiana Stakes

Pace is an even more important factor than usual in this undercard event at Fair Grounds, and that is because there isn’t any. Rocket Time and Carve no longer seem to have the positional speed they had in their younger days, which is not an uncommon development for horses of a certain age – Rocket Time is now 6, and Carve is 7 – and both might also be on the downside of their career arcs. Honorable Duty only seems to get involved early when the fractions are extremely slow.

At first glance, Iron Fist, a 5-year-old, might look like he has lost his early zip, too, but I don’t think that’s quite the case. Iron Fist was fairly close through quick half-mile splits in extended one-turn races last time out and three starts back. That alone led me to strongly consider him, but in the end, I couldn’t get past his iffy recent form.

If the Iron Fist of 2015 shows up, the one who was a game second to Frosted in the Pennsylvania Derby and might have won the West Virginia Derby had he not switched to one of the deadest rails you will ever see in the stretch, then the rest of this field is in trouble. But Iron Fist’s four performances last year were far removed from the level of his 3-year-old form, and that includes his desperate win at 3-5 in an allowance race at Churchill Downs most recently.

I like Seeking the Soul, who comes into this off the two best performances of his career. Seeking the Soul showed enough positional foot in those two extended one-turn races to take advantage here of his rail draw and be a forward factor from the start while stretching out to two turns, which is a good move numbers-wise for trainer Dallas Stewart.

Seeking the Soul won two starts back going seven furlongs at Keeneland, beating the next-out winner Unbridled Outlaw, who has always been highly regarded. But Seeking the Soul ran even better in defeat most recently while going a mile at Churchill, finishing a game second to the talented and loose-on-the-lead Bird Song, who came back to finish a good second in last week’s Hal’s Hope Stakes.

Lecomte Stakes

Unlike the Louisiana Stakes, this race is loaded with early speed, and I want someone who can come from off the pace, and do so going two turns.

Guest Suite, to me, is much the horse to beat. He showed the style I want when he notched his maiden win three back routing at Keeneland with a looping, off-the-pace move. And after finishing third in the Street Sense Stakes to McCraken, who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Guest Suite aired at Churchill last time out. But Guest Suite’s virtues are readily apparent, and I fear he won’t be much of a price.

I do, however, think the maiden Arklow has a good shot here at a big price. Arklow most recently finished second while routing at Fair Grounds to Takeoff, who controlled the pace and returns in this race. But despite being at a pace disadvantage, Arklow still gave Takeoff all he wanted, earned a competitive Beyer Speed Figure, and is now in line for a much better pace setup Saturday.

Gasparilla Stakes

This is one of three stakes on the card at Tampa Bay Downs, and Mythical Tale is a solid play, even if she will be a fraction of the 50-1 she was when she won her debut two starts back or the 14-1 she was when clearly second-best in an allowance race most recently, also at Churchill.

Mythical Tale’s last effort was particularly good as she showed improved speed, was the only early pace player not to give way, and was game while chasing an opponent who was dropping out of two stakes starts. Moreover, I like Mythical Tale’s distance cutback from a mile to seven furlongs.