Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Jan. 16: Picks for Sunshine Millions Turf, Lecomte, Fifth Season

Fair Grounds gets serious on Saturday with five stakes races, headed by the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes. Saturday also is Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream Park, with six stakes topped by the $250,000 Sunshine Millions Classic.

Sunshine Millions Turf

Cement Clement and Rizwan don’t necessarily have to hook up early in this race. In fact, Cement Clement looks like he’s the quicker of the two and could clear if he really wants to. But Rizwan has some early foot, and I expect him to go early to some extent, if for no other reason than to make the most of his inside draw. In the end, I hope these two will conspire for a pace that is at least honest, and that would be good news for my play, Manchurian High.

:: Sunshine Millions: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

If the early fractions are indeed honest, it would be the first time Manchurian High has seen a fair pace in nine starts since he stormed from far back to blow away the field in the 2015 Sunshine Millions Turf. Since then, Manchurian High has encountered one pokey pace after another, not to mention a couple of bad trips, such as his absurdly wide trip in last year’s Dixie Stakes.

Given that Manchurian High is a closer, it is not surprising that a bevy of bad setups have had an adverse effect on his overall form. He has won only once since his Sunshine Millions win, and that might lead one to conclude that he is not as sharp as he was at this time last year.

I’m not so sure. Manchurian High’s one victory since his Sunshine Millions win came just two starts back in a solid allowance race at Keeneland. The 95 Beyer Speed Figure he received for finishing sixth in the W.L. McKnight Handicap most recently was actually a point higher than the Beyer he was assigned for his rallying third in the 2014 McKnight, which came right before his Sunshine Millions score. That suggests that Manchurian High might still be the same horse, just one in need of a decent setup.

Lecomte Stakes

I’m not strongly against Mo Tom here. He finished less than two lengths behind Airoforce when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last time out, and Airoforce is a finalist for a divisional Eclipse Award. But the Kentucky Jockey Club, Mo Tom’s best race yet, was run on a sloppy track, which he is unlikely to catch Saturday. And outside of a momentary steady on the far turn, Mo Tom enjoyed a favorable rail trip that day.

I do have stronger positions against Destin and the three horses who come out of the local allowance prep for this race – Pinnacle Peak, Tom’s Ready (who reportedly will draw in on the scratch of Noble Thought), and Dolphus. Destin must improve significantly Saturday with blinkers on because his first two performances were simply too slow to win this. As for the other three, they all improved so dramatically Beyer-wise in that allowance race that I just don’t trust the number.

Uncle Walter is my preference. Uncle Walter won his debut at Keeneland and then took a big step forward most recently in an allowance race at Churchill Downs when a narrowly beaten second to a very intriguing prospect in Synchrony. Uncle Walter, owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trained by Mike Maker, will be stretching out to a route. But his profile is reminiscent of Vicar’s in Trouble, who won the 2014 Lecomte off two sprints for these connections. These connections also won last year’s Lecomte with International Star.

Fifth Season Stakes

There isn’t much speed in this feature on the first Saturday card at Oaklawn beyond Ecleto Red, and I doubt he’s good enough even with a pace advantage. Street Strategy, who has always seemed like a potentially good horse compromised by layoff lines, should draw a sweet pace-prompting trip here and is a solid play.

Street Strategy was overmatched against Liam’s Map in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last out but was a nice allowance winner at Keeneland two starts back off a 3 1/2-month layoff. Street Strategy also won three starts back at this 1 1/16-mile distance around two turns at Churchill, albeit in an off-the-turf race. But he won in good time and on a wet-fast surface, which is noteworthy if rain does develop in Hot Springs, Ark., on Saturday.