Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 6: Picks for Donn, San Antonio, San Marcos
In terms of stakes action, Saturday is all about Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has six stakes on its 13-race card, headed by the Grade 1, $500,000 Donn Handicap and the Grade 1, $350,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.
Santa Anita presents four graded stakes on its nine-race program, with the ostensible feature being the Grade 2, $500,000 San Antonio. But 2-year-old filly champion Songbird makes her 3-year-old debut earlier on the card in the Grade 2, $300,000 Las Virgenes.
Donn Handicap
Mshawish and Keen Ice are obvious win candidates. Mshawish has done well transitioning from turf to dirt, winning the quickly run Hal’s Hope in his last start. And Keen Ice turned out to be the only one to beat Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year American Pharoah last season when he won the Travers. Keen Ice also was a fast-closing fourth in the Clark Handicap most recently.
That said, you have to wonder how much the connections of Mshawish and Keen Ice are willing to have their horses empty their tanks Saturday when both have designs on the Dubai World Cup on March 26. Furthermore, there are other questions about these two.
:: Gulfstream: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
The book on Mshawish is that he pulls himself up once he sees the lead in the stretch, and he did it again in the Hal’s Hope. The good news is that he was decidedly better than it looks on paper in winning the Hal’s Hope. But I’m not sure he can get away with those tricks in this tougher field.
As for Keen Ice, he capitalized on a gift setup in the Travers, where Frosted unexpectedly went after American Pharoah early. Keen Ice is a deep closer who needs an honest pace up front to do his best, and I’m not sure he’ll get that here.
Pace is an especially interesting factor in this Donn and is the reason why I’m going with Financial Modeling.
I’ll be the first to concede that Financial Modeling capitalized on a speedless situation when he won the Queens County last time, but he won that race with style and earned a legitimately strong Beyer Speed Figure. Valid is the only other horse in this Donn who can go early with Financial Modeling, and he’s probably quicker than him if he wants to be. But I’m not sure that is Valid’s best chance to get a nine-furlong distance that isn’t his very best trip.
My hope is that Irad Ortiz Jr. is as aggressive on Financial Modeling as he was in the Queens County and puts him right on the lead. I’ll take my chances from there.
San Antonio Stakes
Imperative and Hoppertunity ran well in finishing second and third to 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome in last month’s San Pasqual, and neither would be a surprise here. But I’m playing against them.
Imperative has not actually won since he upset the 2014 Charles Town Classic 22 months and 14 starts ago, and that’s too long of a drought for me. Hoppertunity was especially good in the San Pasqual, where he finished strongly from last despite getting an incredibly slow pace for the class of horse involved. But over the last year, Hoppertunity also has had trouble closing the deal.
I like Donworth, who makes his first start for a new outfit after being purchased for $550,000 at Keeneland last November. I know I’ve been a member of the Donworth fan club, but I still believe he can be an important horse. He was a game second in the Lexington Stakes in just the second start of his career, he ran against the grain of an inside track when third in the Sir Barton, and won the Stanton by the length of the stretch in his last appearance, offering a glimpse of what might be. I expect Donworth to be involved from the start Saturday.
San Marcos Stakes
It’s not my style to take a horse who won his last race at 46-1 when you know he’ll be a fraction of that price this time. It’s the old “missed the wedding, why go to the wake?” theory. But I’m making an exception with Flamboyant.
Flamboyant sprung his huge upset last month in the San Gabriel, and he’s in line to get another favorable pace setup for his late kick. Most importantly, Flamboyant, who slumped after showing potential as a 3-year-old, now has his career going in the right direction.