Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 4: Picks for Forward Gal, Withers, San Antonio
Multiple-stakes cards at Gulfstream and Santa Anita, the seasonal debut of a unanimous 2016 Eclipse Award winner, and three Kentucky Derby points races highlight a busy first Saturday of February.
Gulfstream has five stakes on its card, topped by the Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull, one of those three Derby points events. The Holy Bull marks the 3-year-old debut of Classic Empire, last year’s champion 2-year-old male. Santa Anita has three Grade 2 events on its program, led by the $300,000 San Antonio, but its Grade 3, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes is a Derby points race. The other Derby points race is the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers at Aqueduct.
Forward Gal Stakes
Pretty City Dancer makes her first start since sharing the win in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes last September, a five-month layoff precipitated by a minor ankle issue. She is the only graded stakes winner in this field, but I’m playing against her.
I wasn’t thrilled with the way Pretty City Dancer raced greenly through the stretch of the Spinaway, head cocked to the right, which in my view cost her the outright win. But I’m more concerned that the Spinaway was run so slowly that it received a winning Beyer Speed Figure of only 75. Certainly, Pretty City Dancer is eligible to run faster as she matures, but I want to see her do it.
I’m also not enamored with Wildcat Kate and Bode’s Dream, the one-two finishers in the recent Old Hat Stakes. The winning Beyer of the Old Hat was a modest 78, and yet that was the highest so far for both fillies.
This race is a good spot for a new face, and I’m going with Ms Locust Point. Ms Locust Point earned this field’s highest Beyer, an 86, when she dominated the Gin Talking Stakes last time out, and while that was “only” a small winter stakes at Laurel, the runner-up had placed in two prior stakes and came back to win the Marshua Stakes.
Beyond the fact that she is trained by John Servis, who sent out Cathryn Sophia to romp in this race last year, what intrigues me is the speed Ms Locus Point showed in her first two starts over the much deeper Parx surface. That should translate well to the quicker Gulfstream surface and make her a player from the start.
Withers Stakes
It’s a policy of mine to be skeptical of horses coming off big victories on wet tracks when they run back on a fast track. Many horses don’t extend themselves on off tracks, often making blowout wet-track winners appear better than they really are.
This point is made because El Areeb’s double-digit-length score last time in the Jerome, his first attempt around two turns, came on the sort of wet track he will not encounter Saturday. Moreover, while the 91 Beyer that El Areeb was assigned is clearly the highest in this field, it really wasn’t all that high considering the Jerome’s circumstances. Although El Areeb earned a 94 Beyer in winning two back at Laurel, that came sprinting. There’s no guarantee he will be as fast routing on a dry track.
J Boys Echo is my play. J Boys Echo had a weird trip when fourth in the Delta Jackpot most recently. He was close early, was caught three to four wide on the first turn, fell back in the middle stages, was four to five wide on the far turn, was at least seven wide into the stretch when it appeared that he might be eased, yet finished willingly on his own courage.
J Boys Echo showed potential in winning two starts back going long at Keeneland, and I like the Gulfstream-to-Aqueduct ship at this time of year.
San Antonio Stakes
Hoppertunity is a solid horse, but his meek fourth in the Clark Handicap last time out was not one of his better efforts, and I prefer the improving Accelerate.
Accelerate was 42-1 when third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile two starts back, but he ran well after getting shuffled back nearing the first turn and briefly on the rail on the far turn. And his second in the San Pasqual most recently was a good try considering that the accomplished winner, Midnight Storm, was essentially loose on the lead. In any case, these were career-best performances for a lightly raced horse who can still move forward.