Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 3: Picks for San Pasqual Stakes, Holy Bull Stakes, King Cotton Stakes
NEW YORK – Gulfstream and Santa Anita are the two tracks one would expect to command the racing scene this time of year, and that is precisely the case Saturday. Gulfstream has five graded stakes on its program, topped by the Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull. Santa Anita has four stakes on its card, three of which are Grade 2 events, and one – the $200,000 Palos Verdes – lured champion male sprinter Roy H. The one other graded stakes on Saturday’s schedule is the Grade 3, $200,000 Withers at Aqueduct.
San Pasqual Stakes
Pavel did things last year that made me think he was a star in the making. He was involved in a minor award photo in the Jim Dandy after making a wide run on the far turn with Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing, which I thought was remarkable considering he was making only his second career start and first start beyond a sprint distance. Pavel followed with a dominating score in the Smarty Jones, and an excellent third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But he was thrown to the wolves in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which he finished a distant 10th of 11, and was an uninspiring fourth as the favorite in the Malibu most recently. It’s too early to write Pavel off. He may still turn out to be the important horse he hinted he might be. But I can’t endorse him after his lackluster Malibu effort.
Accelerate is my play. Accelerate was a soundly beaten second in the San Antonio on opening day of the Santa Anita meet, but his effort was better than it looks on the surface. For one, he was caught three to four wide on the first turn, which was particularly unfortunate in only a five-horse field. More importantly, Accelerate chased a loose leader in Giant Expectations, who absolutely walked on the lead through extremely slow fractions and who, not surprisingly, proved impossible to catch.
There isn’t a great deal of early speed in this San Pasqual, either. But I’m hoping that with the jockey switch back to Victor Espinoza, Accelerate turns the situation to his favor and is aggressive from the start. That was the approach Espinoza took with Accelerate last summer at Del Mar, where he galloped in the San Diego Handicap and finished third behind Collected and Arrogate in the Pacific Classic in performances that would be good enough to win this race.
Holy Bull Stakes
I wanted to go with Mississippi. He was bet like a good thing in his debut, was a solid maiden winner in his second start and was a game second last time out to the highly regarded Noble Indy in a strongly run allowance race at this distance over this Gulfstream main track. But Mississippi drew post 11 of 11, which is no party in Gulfstream routes.
Even if one of the four Dale Romans entered in the Holy Bull scratches as planned and Mississippi moves to post 10, that’s still a tough draw. Mississippi is no Gun Runner – not yet, anyway – and despite a slightly longer run to the first turn than last week’s nine-furlong Pegasus, Mississippi is still at risk of losing ground on the first turn that he can’t afford to lose.
:: The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package
Enticed, who drew the rail and has the speed to capitalize on that favorable draw, looks formidable. I don’t especially like Enticed off his win in the slowly run Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in his last appearance. I feel his third in the Champagne two starts back, his only loss, was by far the best race he’s ever run. Enticed disputed an early Champagne pace that wound up completely falling apart, and he fell back in the middle stages of the race as though he would finish close to last. But to his credit, Enticed righted himself, fought on gamely to finish behind subsequent champion 2-year-old male Good Magic, and galloped out well.
King Cotton Stakes
There are lots of ways to go in this sprint feature at Oaklawn, but I can’t resist St. Joe Bay.
St. Joe Bay’s recent form is darkened. He was four wide and off a five-month layoff in the allowance prep for this, he was on the wrong surface when on turf two back, and was bothered by the riderless Drefong three back. But any of his previous four efforts, including two Santa Anita stakes wins, can take this.
