Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 27: Picks for Palm Beach, Canadian Turf, Maxxam Gold Cup
Putting aside for a moment the debate over whether stacking stakes races on big-event days acts to the detriment of a given track’s overall racing program, Gulfstream’s stakes-stacked card Saturday is an impressive one.
The headliner is the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth, featuring the undefeated Mohaymen. But there are seven other stakes on the 13-race card, five of them graded, including the Grade 2, $200,000 Davona Dale.
Palm Beach Stakes
With the exception of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Azar has yet to finish off the board in turf routes such as this undercard event at Gulfstream. But Azar took the worst of it at the draw, getting marooned in post 14. Moreover, I wasn’t taken by his seasonal debut in last month’s Kitten’s Joy. Yes, Azar steadied late, but only briefly. He wasn’t getting there anyway, and that after a perfect inside-out trip.
Giant Run might be coming into this off only a maiden victory, but he’s interesting. He beat a good one in next-out winner Inspector Lynley most recently and was second to another good one last fall in Catapult in his only other attempt on turf. In addition, either of the Beyer Speed Figures that Giant Run earned in his turf starts is higher than anything anyone else in this race has ever earned. However, Giant Run has yet to show that he can be effective rating off the lead, and there is other speed in here.
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I like Urban Bourbon, who won a live maiden race over the Gulfstream course two starts back in his first attempt going two turns on grass and was a very good third in the Dania Beach Stakes last time out. Urban Bourbon was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths in the Dania Beach despite being three wide on the first turn and four wide on the far turn and being compromised by a slow early pace. The two who finished in front of him that day, Life Imitates Art and Isotherm, both moved earlier than he did, and that made all the difference. Urban Bourbon is nicely drawn in midfield and should get a lively pace to set up what is developing into a good late run.
Canadian Turf Stakes
Heart to Heart comes into this undercard event at Gulfstream in raging form, having won three graded stakes in his last four starts. However, in each of those victories, Heart to Heart was able to establish easy, uncontested early leads, and I would be surprised if he’s allowed another free ride this time. Notacatbutallama, for one, has enough speed to at least keep Heart to Heart honest up front.
I’m a fan of Divisidero and think he has what it takes to be a factor in the male turf division this year. But I’m going against him Saturday. It’s not necessarily the nearly eight-month layoff that concerns me because Divisidero has run big off just workouts in the past. It’s the layoff in combination with him meeting older opponents for the first time that gives me cause for pause.
Tower of Texas is my play. Tower of Texas was already good when he tried turf for the first time at Woodbine last summer, but I think he has found his calling on grass. He won the King Edward Stakes in his turf debut in a performance that puts him right in the mix here and later ran big two races when nosed in the Play the King. This will be Tower of Texas’s first start since an unsuccessful outing in the Woodbine Mile, in which he might not have cared for the off going. But he has won fresh before, it’s telling that he lured Javier Castellano, and I like his inside draw with the short run to the first turn.
Maxxam Gold Cup
There are two reputation horses in Ride On Curlin and Coup de Grace who are liable to take money, and both are vulnerable. Ride On Curlin isn’t the horse he was when second in the 2014 Preakness, and Coup de Grace is a multiple graded stakes winner, but sprinting. I don’t think he wants to route.
Freestyler is back in the fine form he showed last summer, and he’ll be a handful if he runs back to his second to the talented Eagle in the Tenacious two starts back.