Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 25: Picks for Risen Star, Mineshaft, Busher

It’s all about Fair Grounds on Saturday as the New Orleans track offers a card that includes six stakes, led by the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star and the Grade 2, $200,000 Rachel Alexandra. Gulfstream has three stakes on its program, topped by the Grade 3, $100,000 Gulfstream Park Sprint.

Risen Star Stakes

Local Hero comes into this with only a victory over maidens last month and is considerably less accomplished than other members of this field. Yet I have no problem siding with him here because if Local Hero duplicates his last performance, he will win right back.

After finishing second sprinting in his first two starts last fall, Local Hero was stretched out to two turns in his Fair Grounds debut most recently. He gained command on the first turn, shook off early pressure, opened up a big lead through the stretch, and scored by a slightly more than seven lengths despite being taken well in hand late.

But that only tells part of the story. Local Hero’s fractions of 23.01 seconds, 47.19, and 1:12.40 were considerably faster than the fractions of the other two route races on that card. For comparison, older optional claimers posted dramatically slower route fractions of 25.17, 49.30, and 1:13.68 three races before Local Hero romped.

Granted, Local Hero didn’t beat much in his maiden win. But it still speaks highly of him that he won by such a big margin under wraps while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 89 that is the highest in this field, all after going as comparatively fast early as he did. And if anything, Local Hero might have an easier time controlling the pace Saturday.

Mo Town, Guest Suite, So Conflated, and Cool Arrow are the four last-out stakes winners in this field, but none really does much for me. Mo Town makes his first start since beating a Remsen field that has since proven to be weak, while Guest Suite capitalized on a perfect pace setup to win last month’s Lecomte and yet could only manage a Beyer of 82.

So Conflated will not be racing on the synthetic surface over which he won the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields most recently, and Cool Arrow will not be walking on the lead like he did when he won the Springboard Mile in his last appearance – not with Local Hero in the race.

Mineshaft Handicap

Eagle, Mo Tom, and International Star are the three best horses in this undercard event at Fair Grounds. But they are coming off layoffs ranging from five to eight months, and I suspect that each has an eye, to varying degrees, on the richer $400,000 New Orleans Handicap on April 1.

My sense is that this is an out-and-out prep for Eagle since he usually needs a race to reach peak form. International Star has run well fresh, but he turned in some iffy efforts before he went away eight months ago. Mo Tom hasn’t yet run as fast Beyer-wise as the other two, but he runs well fresh, has an uncoupled barnmate in Rise Up, who will ensure an honest pace for his late run, and is my play.

Mo Tom, you might remember, ran well into brutal trips in last year’s Risen Star and Louisiana Derby after he won the Lecomte, and he didn’t have the best of journeys when eighth in the Kentucky Derby either. He dominated the Ohio Derby with a clean trip and was freshened after an uncharacteristically dull effort in the Super Derby. Mo Tom gets the services of Florent Geroux on Saturday, which suggests he’s primed for a characteristically sharp effort.

Busher Stakes

Yorkiepoo Princess was very good last time in her blowout Ruthless score, taking command with a bold burst of speed on the far turn for her second straight stakes win. And she wasn’t even on the rail on a day when the rail seemed very live. But that was sprinting, this race is a route, and there is no guarantee that Yorkiepoo Princess will be as effective going two turns.

I like Spanish Harlem, who truly was a well-measured winner most recently when going long on the inner track in just her second start and her first try on dirt. Spanish Harlem scored by one length, but it easily could have been more, and she did so from off the pace, an approach I want in this spot.