Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 20: Picks for Risen Star, Fair Grounds Handicap, Buena Vista

Fair Grounds commands the spotlight Saturday with a card that includes four graded stakes, led by a pair of Grade 2 route races for 3-year-olds – the $400,000 Risen Star and the $200,000 Rachel Alexandra. The only other graded stakes Saturday is the Grade 2, $200,000 Buena Vista at Santa Anita.

Risen Star Stakes

Airoforce had a terrific campaign last year at 2. He was miles the best in winning the Bourbon Stakes in his second start, was nailed in the last jump in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf by a very good European shipper in Hit It a Bomb, and won what proved to be a productive edition of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Airoforce’s stock got a huge boost when the runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club, Mor Spirit, came back to win the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the third-place finisher, Mo Tom, came back to win the Lecomte Stakes. If the Risen Star came down to throwing one’s past performances onto the track, Airoforce would win.

But it doesn’t. For all Airoforce has done, he remains an unknown on a fast dirt track, which he is certain to catch Saturday. Airoforce’s first three starts were on turf, and the Kentucky Jockey Club was run in the slop.

Does that mean Airoforce can’t win the Risen Star? Of course not. But he’s not a good bet as the likely favorite on a surface he has never raced over before.

Mo Tom probably will be the second choice in the betting off his going-away score in the Lecomte and the fact that each of his races has been better than the one before. That said, outside of a brief steady going into the first turn of the Lecomte, Mo Tom had a good trip and a great pace setup, and I went looking for better prices.

I took a long look at Gun Runner. He will be making his first start since the Kentucky Jockey Club, in which he faded to fourth after looking like a winner in upper stretch, but he did show ability in winning his first two starts. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Steve Asmussen is 6 for 21 over the last five years in graded stakes dirt routes with horses coming off a layoff like Gun Runner’s. However, four of those six wins were by only two horses – Untapable and Tapiture.

I picked Uncle Walter in the Lecomte, and though he finished third, he showed me enough to give him another chance. Uncle Walter, who also ran well in his first two starts, was involved early in what proved to be a demanding Lecomte pace. Uncle Walter can settle early this time from his outside post, and that can lead to an improved performance. So can a jockey switch to the prolific Javier Castellano.

Fair Grounds Handicap

If Chocolate Ride runs his best race, it will be too much for everyone else in here. But it was surprising how hard Chocolate Ride had to work in the stretch to prevail at 4-5 in last month’s Col. E.R. Bradley Handicap after having an easy time on the front end. He should have cruised but didn’t, so maybe he’s a little vulnerable right now.

String King, my play, finished fifth in the Bradley, but you can forget that outing. He was shuffled back and steadied early, he lacked room on the rail into the far turn, and had traffic trouble in the stretch. String King also had a bad trip when nosed two starts back after being impeded by a loose horse and forced into a wide trip. String King gets a jockey switch Saturday, and hopefully he gets put into the game a little earlier.

Buena Vista Stakes

I’m including this race because it is just too wild to resist. Of the 12 in the body of the race, I could make a case for nine.

I’m going with Prize Exhibit. Prize Exhibit’s recent form is clouded. She slumped a bit late last year, and her unsuccessful dirt experiment last time is best ignored. But her Monrovia win two starts back over, among others, the fine turf sprinter Ageless was solid. And Prize Exhibit’s two turf stakes wins last summer at this one-mile distance are good enough to win this.