Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 17: Picks for the Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds Handicap, Barbara Fritchie Stakes

NEW YORK – Preps for the Kentucky Derby take a more serious turn Saturday with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, which is worth five times the Derby points than every prep we’ve seen so far, save for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Risen Star also tops a Fair Grounds card that includes three other graded stakes.

Laurel also has a stakes-packed card Saturday, led by the Grade 2, $300,000 Barbara Fritchie, and the Grade 3, $250,000 General George. Saturday’s other graded stakes are the Grade 2, $200,000 Buena Vista at Santa Anita, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Bayakoa at Oaklawn.

:: Get bonus PPs for Saturday's Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie card at Laurel Park

Risen Star Stakes

Instilled Regard was very good winning last month’s Lecomte Stakes, the local prelude to this. He was in close striking distance to what seemed like a strong early pace, and drew off to score decisively. My lone quibble with Instilled Regard’s performance is his winning Beyer Figure was only a moderate 92. Still, it was his second straight solid stakes outing, coming on the heels of his close third in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, in which he was moved up to second via disqualification after getting bumped around in the stretch.

That said, I’m going to try and beat Instilled Regard, but it won’t be with the undefeated Todd Pletcher-trained Gulfstream shipper Noble Indy. Noble Indy’s determined allowance route win last month in his second start seemed like a good effort at the time, but it was downgraded when the runner-up came back to lose as the odds-on favorite.

Principe Guilherme finished almost four lengths behind Instilled Regard when second in the Lecomte, but I’m taking him to turn the tables Saturday. Principe Guilherme won his first two career starts as though a potential star, and did so after setting the pace both times. But Principe Guilherme found himself well off the pace for the first time in the Lecomte. Despite being in a position unfamiliar to him, and also having a wider trip than the more seasoned Instilled Regard, Principe Guilherme, to his credit, fought on gamely to the finish. I think he will be a much better horse for that experience. I also hope he’ll be closer to the pace this time. And I think a combination of those two factors can make him a winner.

:: The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package

Fair Grounds Handicap

Mr. Misunderstood, the morning-line favorite, is going for his sixth straight stakes victory. But he’s meeting older opponents for the first time, and much faster ones.

I’m much more afraid of Synchrony, whose best form last year is good enough to win this race by daylight. But Synchrony comes into this off a layoff of almost nine months, and I can’t help but wonder if he’s really using this race as a prep for next month’s Muniz Memorial on the Louisiana Derby undercard.

Catcho En Die is my play. Catcho En Die, who won his first three starts in his native Argentina, including a Group 1 event, comes into this off a game second in an allowance turf route at Gulfstream. Not only was that Catcho En Die’s first race in almost 23 months, he was also bottled up inside in the stretch, which let the unobstructed winner get the jump on him. I expect Catcho En Die to benefit from that outing, and I also like that trainer Bill Mott picked this spot for him. According to DRF Formulator, Mott is 2 for 4 with one second and a third over the last five years in graded stakes on the turf at Fair Grounds with a $5.65 ROI. I acknowledge that’s a very small sample, but it does show Mott means serious business when he ships to Fair Grounds for races like this.

Barbara Fritchie Stakes

Highway Star had a terrific campaign last year, winning two Grade 2 stakes and a Grade 3, all in New York. She’s formidable in extended one-turn races like this, and is well posted from the extreme outside. But a second in her most recent outing left me cold, and she’s since been away for 2 1/2 months.

I’m going with Berned. Berned might be meeting older horses for the first time, but she was strong winning the Safely Kept most recently at this distance over this track, earning a 93 Beyer that puts her with the best in this field. She should get a favorable pace for her late kick, and I like Florida shippers like her at this time of year coming into cool Northern weather.