Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 13: Picks for Tampa Bay Stakes, El Camino Real, Santa Maria
There is a little something for everyone on Saturday’s stakes schedule. Santa Anita has a Grade 2 stakes doubleheader with the Santa Maria and Arcadia; Laurel Park offers the Grade 2, $300,000 Barbara Fritchie on a card that includes two other stakes; Tampa Bay Downs has four stakes on its card, three of them Grade 3 races, topped by the $150,000 Endeavour that marks the seasonal bow of champion Tepin; Gulfstream’s feature is the Grade 2, $200,000 Royal Delta; and Golden Gate has the Grade 3, $200,000 El Camino Real Derby.
Tampa Bay Stakes
War Correspondent and Reload are logical win candidates, but if they win, they will do so without me. War Correspondent, in particular, would be formidable if able to return to his early 2015 form that saw him finish a close third in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and win the Appleton. But that’s a huge “if.”
War Correspondent recently returned to racing in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes, and after racing prominently to the stretch, he came up absolutely empty. Yes, he was coming off a nine-month layoff. But War Correspondent is a horse who has run big fresh repeatedly, and he is backed by one of the best layoff trainers in the business in Christophe Clement, so his dull return raises a red flag. Furthermore, it’s telling that War Correspondent passed on a repeat engagement in last week’s Gulfstream Park Turf in favor of this easier spot.
As for Reload, it looked like he was on his way to a big 2015 given how impressively he won his seasonal bow last May. But he was a stark disappointment in his subsequent four starts, in which he was the beaten favorite three times. Even his allowance victory two starts back was only okay.
:: Tampa Bay Downs: Buy PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
I’m also playing against Grand Tito, Sky Captain, and A Lot. Grand Tito, cross-entered in an allowance race Saturday at Gulfstream, is too inconsistent at this level. Sky Captain’s two races last spring in Kentucky were excellent, but he was dismal in his one start since then last November. A Lot needs a perfect setup to do his best, and I’m not sure how good he really is.
I realize Karibu Gardens is taking a major step up off a recent allowance victory at Gulfstream, but I like him. That allowance race was a very deep and competitive event on paper, but Karibu Gardens turned it into a one-horse affair. Despite steadying into the first turn putting him next to last in a field of 12, getting a very slow first quarter, and then having to go five wide on the far turn, Karibu Gardens inhaled his field to win easily. It was a monster effort, and good back form says he is capable of repeating it.
El Camino Real Derby
Frank Conversation is the horse to beat off his victory in the California Derby last month, his first start on a synthetic track. However, Frank Conversation got a perfect trip in that six-horse field, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be as effective if he draws a lesser trip in this 14-horse field.
I’m going with Mr. Coker. Mr. Coker finished second in his debut late last year at Santa Anita to Danzing Candy, who is now on the Kentucky Derby trail after coming back to dominate an allowance route there, and recorded a decisive maiden win most recently, again at Santa Anita. Mr. Coker is up in class and distance, but he’ll be prominent from the start. Being by Candy Ride and trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, Mr. Coker should love the surface switch.
Santa Maria Stakes
I believe Birdatthewire is best around one turn (her win last year in the Gulfstream Oaks was bias-aided) and my instincts tell me the same might be true of Tara’s Tango. Star Act is a turf horse, and Living The Life is a synthetic specialist. There is only one accomplished dirt router here, and that’s Yahilwa, my pick.
Yahilwa was coming off a 2 1/2-month layoff, so she had a license to need her outing in the recent La Canada, in which she was third. She’s the quality speed here, and if she runs back to her close third in the Spinster three starts back, that will be too much for this group.