Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Feb. 10: Picks for Gulfstream Park Turf, Suwannee River Stakes, Sam F. Davis Stakes

NEW YORK – Saturday’s highest-rated and richest stakes race is the Grade 1, $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf, supported by the Grade 3, $150,000 Suwannee River, but there are also very interesting events at Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs. There are three graded stakes at Santa Anita, including the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Maria, which lured the highly talented Unique Bella, and the Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente, which drew a field of only six but is still a fascinating race. At Tampa, the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis, a Kentucky Derby points race, tops a card that includes three other stakes, two of which are Grade 3 events.

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Gulfstream Park Turf

A major question here is if someone will put early pressure on Heart to Heart, who has fashioned a very successful career banking nearly $1.6 million in earnings by mainly taking the initiative in paceless turf stakes. One Go All Go has the speed to engage Heart to Heart early, but who knows if he will use it, especially considering he ran so well last time out coming from slightly off the pace to narrowly miss in the Fort Lauderdale at 30-1. And off the speed he showed in his U.S. debut two starts back, the dirt-to-turf Kurilov can go early with Heart to Heart, but his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., is usually not a send-type rider.

But I’m inclined to go against Heart to Heart on Saturday even if it’s likely he will shake loose early. Heart to Heart lost his best chance early in last month’s Fort Lauderdale when, as the 3-5 favorite, he broke in the air and then was forced to steady going past the stands when the pacesetter crossed over in front of him. While I’m aware that Heart to Heart was taken out of his game, I still didn’t care for the way he completely folded in the stretch to finish a distant seventh of eight.

While he might not be ideally set up pace-wise, the Chad Brown-trained Money Multiplier is a logical alternative as he has finished second in four Grade 1 stakes races. But Money Multiplier has a bit of hang in him, and I’m going instead with Hi Happy.

Hi Happy came to the U.S. with some high hopes after he won the 2015 running of the prestigious Group 1 Carlos Pellegrini in his native Argentina, soundly defeating 19 opponents. He remained on turf for his first two U.S. starts, the second of which was a good fourth in the San Marcos one year ago. Hi Happy then made his last two starts on dirt, and despite that arguably being only his second-best surface, he was a creditable fourth in the Santa Anita Handicap, and a narrowly beaten third in the Tokyo City Stakes.

Hi Happy returns from a 10-month layoff Saturday, but gets an enormously positive trainer change to Todd Pletcher. According to DRF Formulator, Pletcher over the last five years is 10 for 22 with a $3.90 ROI with horses coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in turf routes at Gulfstream.

Suwannee River Stakes

While I doubt the fractions will be quite as glacier-like as the 26.37 seconds, 51.42, and 1:15.63 that were posted in last month’s prelude to this event, the Marshua’s River, I do envision the pace setup to be similar. There is very little genuine early speed here, and I’m expecting Ultra Brat to be involved right from the start as she was when she took the Marshua’s River, and score right back.

I do think Ultra Brat is for real. The Marshua’s River was her third win from five career attempts on turf, and she had excuses in her two turf losses – too close to a destructive early pace, and her first start off an 11-month absence.

Sam F. Davis Stakes

Vino Rosso might have aired in his first two starts, but Catholic Boy is much the one to beat as he was legitimately good winning the Remsen most recently in his first try on dirt. Still, I’m taking Vouch for the upset.

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Vouch finished third in the Remsen, but was making only his second start, was caught five wide into the first turn, was four to five wide on that first turn, and was used down the backstretch. With a better approach, Vouch can be much more competitive with Catholic Boy.