Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Dec. 5: Picks for Claiming Crown Rapid Transit, Jewel, Gin Talking
The shift to winter racing begins in earnest Saturday with the opening of the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park. Gulfstream opens with the always-popular nine-race Claiming Crown, headed by the $200,000 Jewel.
Claiming Crown Rapid Transit
Stallwalkin’ Dude and Trouble Kid clearly have the best recent paper coming into this race. In his last three starts, Stallwalkin’ Dude has competed in two Grade 1 events, finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and a narrowly beaten third in the Vosburgh. Most recently, Stallwalkin’ Dude was fourth in the De Francis Dash, not a bad race considering how he was knocked around nearing the far turn.
Trouble Kid is the one who caused all the trouble in the De Francis when he came over nearing the far turn while moving to the lead, and was rightfully disqualified from first and placed second. But Trouble Kid won stakes two and three starts back, and has now finished first in all five starts since being claimed for a meager $15,000.
Stallwalkin’ Dude and Trouble Kid will obviously be tough Saturday, but that doesn’t mean they are the only ones who can win this race. Yes, Stallwalkin’ Dude has faced much better, but his Beyer Figures are declining and I wonder if his form isn’t doing the same. And this will be Trouble Kid’s first attempt at a distance as far as seven furlongs. He might have no problem with it. But considering the world of difference between six- and seven-furlong races, I’m not sure I want to take a short price on a horse making this stretch-out in such a competitive spot.
I’m going with Ledokol, who has some performances that make him a legitimate win threat. Ledokol was a runaway winner at the distance over the track five starts back, earning a 102 Beyer that puts him in the ballgame here. He was overmatched in the subsequent Smile Sprint, but his near-miss to Falling Sky in the Trinniberg three back was another effort that looks good in the context of this race. Even his odd-trip fourth in the Groomstick most recently fits well against these. Ledokol could have been the controlling speed in the Groomstick, but he was taken in hand and got involved in a pace battle. He fell back in upper stretch, only to gamely re-rally once clear on the outside.
Claiming Crown Jewel
As every Gulfstream watcher knows, there is a short run to the first turn in 1 1/8-mile races such as this. And with 14 entered, some horses here will lose more ground on the first turn than they will be able to handle. But just as important as that critical consideration, there are many horses in this race who are real question marks going as far as nine furlongs.
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That’s why I like Royal Posse. I have no worries about Royal Posse getting this trip because he won two of his three starts at Saratoga, all at 1 1/8 miles around two turns, and was a narrowly beaten second in the other. One of those victories came in the Evan Shipman, and even though that race was restricted to New York-breds, the horses Royal Posse beat that day were as good if not better than anyone else in this field has beaten lately. Moreover, Royal Posse has enough positional speed to work out a favorable trip.
Gin Talking Stakes
If Cathryn Sophia runs back to the huge 92 Beyer she received in her near 13-length romp at Parx in her debut, she will win this by a pole. But it’s interesting that of the three who have raced since finishing behind Cathryn Sophia, two declined Beyer-wise, including the one who subsequently won with only a 37 Beyer.
Prognosis is worth a try as an alternative to the heavy favorite. After doing no running on turf in her debut three starts back, Prognosis has gone 2 for 2 on dirt and with Lasix. She gained her maiden win at Saturday’s seven-furlong distance at Ellis, and came back to prevail in an allowance route at Keeneland. I like the distance cut-back of 1 1/16 miles around two turns to seven furlongs for Prognosis.